Week 3 fantasy lames: Dare to steer away from Edwards-Helaire

Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Scoring thresholds – QB: 19 fantasy points, RB: 12 points, WR: 11 points, TE: 10 points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 3 Lames in the comments section below.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

(78% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,500)
Matchup: at NO
Vegas line/Total: NO -3, 51.5

In an offseason when he and Danica Patrick split, Green Bay’s front office fathers committed unspeakable NFL draft crimes and free agent acquisition Devin Funchess opted out, Rodgers’ fantasy stock trended southward. Without a reliable WR2, it seemed Father Time would add grays to his thickening beard. But at the controls of consecutive 40-point scoring performances by his club, the venerable passer hasn’t succumbed to any cold-shouldered narrative. QB7 through two weeks, he tallied six touchdowns and tossed passes with classic accuracy (QB13 in adjusted completion percentage). Dark clouds, however, may be gathering.

Questions loom regarding Davante Adams’ availability for Sunday’s primetime clash with New Orleans. Hampered by a hamstring injury, Green Bay’s indispensable top weapon could be extremely limited even if available. It’s possible he acts as a decoy in an attempt to secure top CB Marshon Lattimore’s attention. Of course, Rodgers flourished without Adams in uniform over four games last season. During the stretch, he fired 10 TDs and ranked QB2 in overall fantasy value. It’s possible he leaves this imprecise prognosticator second-guessing, but Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling don’t lend much confidence. Unless Aaron Jones again channels Ahman Green and Sterling Sharpe, expect modest production from the future HOFer.

Fearless forecast: 266 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 18.6 fantasy points

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

(96%; $6,500)
Matchup: at BAL
Vegas line/Total: BAL -3.5, 53.5

Cannonball splashing on the scene opening night with a memorable exhibition against Houston, Edwards-Helaire instantly showed why the fantasy community bullishly pursued his services in Round 1 of drafts. He pushed through initial contact, displayed excellent burst and eluded tackles via his well-publicized shake. Naturally, critics admonished him for his 0-for-6 night at the goal line, but following up with 80 combined yards on 16 touches (six receptions), he’s undoubtedly the workhorse in arguably the league’s most dynamic offense. His 3.40 YAC per attempt and 20.3% missed tackle rate only confirms his RB1 status.

As respected and revered the youngster may already be, a daunting Monday night matchup with Baltimore awaits. Against Cleveland and Houston, the Ravens surrendered 101.0 total yards per game, zero touchdowns and 4.8 yards per carry to opposing rushers. KC’s marginal initial outputs in power running success and overall run-blocking metrics suggest it has a tall task ahead. Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams, Jihad Ward and rookie Patrick Queen each have already recorded three run stops this season. Under the primetime lights, CEH underachieves.

Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 61 rush yards, 4 receptions, 25 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.6 fantasy points

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

(94%; $5,900)
Matchup: at PHI
Vegas line/Total: PHI -6, 46.5

When it comes to the Emmys, all John Oliver does is win. When it comes to fantasy, all Mixon does is underperform. On screen, award-winning efforts by the Cincinnati running back occur irregularly. He proved profitable in the pass game last Thursday in a high-octane Battle for Ohio, but his woes finding daylight behind the Bengals’ enervated offensive line left his supporters unsettled. The rusher sports a 20.0% missed tackle rate through two games, but his lackluster 2.34 YAC per attempt misses the mark. Most disconcerting, he’s encountered a stacked front just 8.6% of the time.

Darrell Henderson slashed and gashed Philadelphia’s stalwart defensive line, totaling 81 yards on only 12 carries. The Eagles, though, have yielded just 3.7 yards per carry to all rushers thus far. The Rams’ offensive line showed superb push for the second straight week, a characteristic Cincinnati rarely displayed last year and certainly hasn’t in the new season. Interior maneaters Fletcher Cox and Hasaan Ridgeway should manhandle the Bengals’ flimsy front, preventing Mixon from logging several noteworthy gains. After this week, you’ll likely be able to exchange a pack of Skittles for the RB.

Fearless forecast: 18 carries, 58 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 23 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.6 fantasy points

D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers

(86%; $6,100)
Matchup: at LAC
Vegas line/Total: LAC -6.5, 44

Before the season began, turntablists and fantasy gamers alike widely believed Carolina’s D.J. would spin numbers at a high RPM. The setup was ideal. An aggressive play caller, OC Joe Brady, mixed with a short-armed QB and backed by a lousy defense. For a high-volume and versatile receiver, one couldn’t ask for a more supportive environment. He bombed Week 1 (4-54-0), but his 8-120-0 effort last Sunday against Tampa and overall 27.8% target share arrows to ample voluminous outcomes. Most weeks, the dude is going to blast the bass in PPR formats.

However, his Week 3 matchup against the Chargers could unplug the party. With the exception of one electric connection — Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill for a 54-yard touchdown — L.A. played brilliant defense against the league’s deadliest offense. Stout pass D should be an ongoing theme for the Bolts. Casey Hayward, Michael Davis and Chris Harris comprise a talented and proven trio. Against Cincy and KC, they conceded a combined 0.97 yards per snap. Whether working in the slot (23.5% slot percentage in ‘20) or outside, Moore will be challenged, repeatedly.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.9 fantasy points

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

(81%; $7,000)
Matchup: vs. LAR
Vegas line/Total: BUF -2.5, 47.5

Lampooned an uncountable number of times during his two-plus years in the NFL, Josh Allen is in the midst of a metamorphosis. Though hilariously bad misfires have occasionally resurfaced (e.g. Week 1 to a wide-open John Brown in the end zone), the passer has mostly channeled the football ghost of Jim Kelly, picking defenses apart across all fields. Some would say his QB10 standing adjusted completion percentage is another sign of the 2020 apocalypse, but it’s what’s most likely is his development combined with Diggs’ smooth route-running presence have unlocked a potential MVP candidate. Yes, an MVP candidate. And, no, that line wasn’t written while huffing a can of Krylon.

This week, Allen will be hard-pressed to duplicate his immediate success. Unlike the disastrous Jets and Dolphins, the Rams feature a skillful secondary. Jalen Ramsey (93.4 passer rating allowed), Darious Williams (41.1) and the very underrated Troy Hill (79.8) have surrendered the second-lowest total air yards (350), 6.1 pass yards per attempt and zero wide receiver touchdowns. Diggs, who already has a 100-yard game under his belt and has commanded 23.7% of Buffalo’s target share, is bound to exceed his WR3 fantasy draft day expectations. But, this week, he’ll live down to them.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.4 fantasy points

Bonus lames (over 50% started)

QB: Drew Brees, NO (Line: NO -3.5; DK: $6,200) — Through two games, Brees has displayed the arm strength of Mariah Carey during her infamous slow dribbled first pitch. On 63 pass attempts, he’s completed one pass chucked beyond 20 yards. It could be early-season rust, but given his advanced age, it’s most plausible Father Time is starting to wreak havoc. Presumably without Michael Thomas once again this week, the Canton inductee is completely untrustworthy. Underreported, Green Bay has done a solid job in coverage thus far. Yes, they gave up 8.6 pass yards per attempt to Minnesota and Detroit, but Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan haven’t broken, yielding a combined 76.3 passer rating to their assignments. Ragtag and deteriorating right before our eyes (QB27 in adjusted completion percentage), Brees isn’t an advisable play over Gardner Minshew (vs. MIA), Mitchell Trubisky (at ATL) and Ryan Tannehill (at MIN). (FF: 257-2-1, 17.3 fantasy points)

RB: Melvin Gordon, DEN (Line: TB -6; DK: $5,800) — Things in Denver have reached panicked proportions. When you sign Blake Bortles off the street it’s a tell-tale sign. Jeff Driskel, who set the pace in aDOT with a 13.2-yard mark in Week 2, is a capable backup, but down Courtland Sutton and numerous others, the Broncos are hurting everywhere. Gordon played remarkably well in Pittsburgh last week, piling up 84 combined yards and a TD. Denver’s offensive line has created sizable lanes for him to truck through. Still, with a backup QB and thinned receiving corps, he’s sure to face more eight-man fronts moving forward. Against an ungenerous Tampa run D (2.6 YPC allowed to RBs), he’s almost entirely TD dependent. (FF: 17-54-0, 3-15-0, 8.4 fantasy points)

RB: David Johnson, HOU (Line: PIT -4; DK: $5,400) — Bill O’Brien continues to stupefy the fantasy masses with his refusal to feature Johnson more in the pass game. Deshaun Watson shoulders some of the blame, but not incorporating more designed pass plays for one of the game’s premier receiving backs prompts questions. Last week against Baltimore, he was targeted four times, grabbing a pair of passes for 16 yards. Dumb. Johnson showed flashes of his old self (25.9% missed tackle percentage) Week 1 against KC. More importantly, he is the unrivaled top back. More prolific days are on the horizon, but facing another unbending D, Pittsburgh, in Week 3, his resurrected star could lose some luster. The Steelers have allowed a mere 92.5 total yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry to RBs over two games. (FF: 14-48-0, 4-22-0, 8.0 fantasy points)

WR: Julio Jones, ATL (Line: ATL -3, DK: $7,400) — Whether it’s the hamstring tenderness or nasty case of alligator arms — he dropped an easy TD last week against Dallas — Julio’s early-season ineptitude is maddening. Playing through pain is a routine practice for many NFL players, but with the treasured WR not at 100%, he’s not nearly the slam dunk he normally would be. His 4-2-24-0 line last week is Exhibit A. This week colliding with a Bears secondary that’s outperformed my low expectations, Jones isn’t recommended. Against Detroit and New York Chicago DBs surrendered 6.6 pass yards per attempt. Whether against Kyle Fuller (27.1 passer rating allowed) or Jaylon Johnson (64.2), the former All-Pro could play the role of decoy. (FF: 4-52-0, 7.2 fantasy points)

TE: Darren Waller, LV (Line: NE-5.5, DK: $5,700) — Here’s what we know about Bill Belichick: 1) He despises sleeves, 2) He relishes processed meats from Subway, 3) He exhibits a smoldering disgruntledness during every postgame press conference, 4) He designs defensive schemes to neutralize a team’s best vertical option. Waller stimulated all five senses in a titillating performance Monday versus New Orleans. On 16 targets he grabbed 12 passes for 103 yards and a TD. Accounting for a godlike 38.7% target share, he is Derek Carr’s unmistakable No. 1. The Pats, after an embarrassing defensive effort against Seattle, rectify their defensive issues. Likely to be bracketed, Waller could suffer a similar fate as Mike Gesicki did Week 1 against the Pats (5-3-30-0). (FF: 4-49-0, 6.9 fantasy points)