The last few teams got their first wins and first losses of the MLB season in the last week. We’re a long way from escaping the clutches of small sample sizes, but at least at this point no one can pretend to have illusions of 162-0 (or 0-162, if they’re particularly masochistic). Either way, it’s time to take a look at the FTN MLB Power Rankings.

Divisions are starting to separate. In the AL East and NL West, there are a combined two teams with a negative run differential, three under .500. Meanwhile, in the AL Central and AL West, the Tigers (at a paltry +6) are the only team with a positive run differential. Those trends will regress as the season goes on in most cases (though we’ll see if the AL Central can right the ship, that one looks rough so far).

So let’s take a look at where the power rankings sit a week into April and how the FTN Model sees the season playing out. Below are some key takeaways, and then check at bottom for the full power rankings.

Key Takeaways

Rangers Succeeding Despite Quiet Bats

As a team, the Texas Rangers have a .192 batting average, .266 on-base percentage and .344 slugging. The average and OBP are worst in baseball; the slugging is all the way up at 25^th. Only the Pirates, Mariners, Astros and Braves are scoring fewer runs per game. And yet they are second in our power rankings, and it’s because, in a situation wholly unfamiliar to the franchise in its 50-plus-year history, the pitching is what’s doing the job. Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Leiter and Tyler Mahle have combined for a 1.14 ERA in six starts (31.2 innings), with Jacob deGrom at 3.38. Even Kumar Rocker rebounded from a disaster first start to throw 5 innings of 1-run ball Sunday. In the bullpen, Luke Jackson had a blow-up on Opening Day, but he’s notched 5 saves in 5 scoreless innings since. The bats in Texas will improve, and we’ll just have to see if the pitching can keep it rolling.

Braves Still Near the Top

Yes, they’re 1-8. Yes, they’ve been shut out three times and held to one run twice. And yes, since last we checked in, Jesse Chavez has been activated, DFA’d, released and signed again. But regardless, the model still believes in the Braves. Part of it is that they’re getting healthier. Sean Murphy is back from the IL and set to debut Tuesday. Spencer Strider should be back after one more rehab start. Ronald Acuña Jr. is still more than a month away, and the team is down Jurickson Profar for half the season because of a suspension, but the Braves are getting it together. Also … it’s April 7. What we all thought about Atlanta two weeks ago should still be the biggest factor.

Not Quite Believing in the Giants Yet

The Giants lost 3-2 to the Reds on the second day of the season … and that was it. They haven’t lost since, rising over the Padres and Dodgers to not only stand as the best team in the NL West, but the best team in baseball through two(-ish) weeks at 8-1. Still, this is a team that even the most optimistic of projections had floating in the .500 range at the start of the season, maybe a fringe Wild Card candidate. An 8-1 start is great, but there’s a ways to go before our model buys all the way in.

Can Cincinnati Figure Out Sequencing?

The Reds have won games 14-3 and 11-7 this year. That’s good! In their other eight games, they’ve scored a combined 14 runs, including three straight 1-0 shutout losses last week and no more than 4 runs in any one game. That’s less good. The team clearly has the offensive firepower to score, and the fact that they gave up 3 combined runs over three games shows the pitching can work wonders as well. It’s just a matter of getting both things to work at the same time, and their 3-7 record and No. 26 slot in our power rankings show they haven’t figured that part out yet.

Marlins, White Sox Bats Could Be Historic(ally Bad)

Our model projects 28 of the 30 teams to score at least 590 runs this year. The two exceptions are the White Sox (504.9 runs) and Marlins (500.7). Yes, there’s nearly a 90-run gap between the Nos. 28 and 29 teams. Only three teams have scored fewer runs than the White Sox so far, only six fewer than the Marlins, but our model expects that’s if anything too good for those teams.

Check out our full rankings below: