Men’s NCAA Tournament Championship Game Preview

The Final Four certainly delivered. 

For only the second time ever, all four No. 1 seeds reached the final weekend of the men’s NCAA Tournament, and we were treated to two fantastic battles that weren’t decided until the final minute. The Florida Gators defeated their SEC rival Auburn for the second time this season, and the Houston Cougars pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in NCAA Tournament history with a shocking victory over Duke. 

Monday’s championship matchup is one of the closest projected title games in recent history, with Florida only a 1.5-point favorite over the home-state Houston Cougars. Here is our FTN preview of the college basketball season finale. 

Men’s NCAA Tournament Championship Game

Florida -1.5 vs. Houston 

Total: 141 Points

In many ways, Florida has been the most consistent team throughout the year. The Gators are 35-4 and in the midst of an 11-game winning streak. The Gators are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and Walter Clayton Jr. has scored 22 or more points in six of the last seven games. Entering Monday, the overwhelming majority of public bets were on the Gators. The Gators even survived their biggest test in the Round of 32 against two-time defending champion Connecticut. It seems like an inevitable Florida coronation, right? 

Wrong. 

Despite Florida’s dominance, they have yet to face the level of defensive pressure Houston will bring. The Cougars held Duke to just one field goal over the final 10 minutes of Saturday’s comeback victory. Houston ranks first overall in adjusted defensive efficiency and third overall in effective field goal percentage allowed. Their level of pressure on screens and rebounding ability force teams out of their comfort zone. The Gators have a strong offense, especially within the arc, but that is the exact strength of the Cougars defense. Florida is also a good (but not great) 3P shooting team, hovering around 35.8% this season. The majority of the Gators 3P prowess comes from Clayton, who is hitting at 39.2% this season. If the Cougars limit Clayton, that is a huge obstacle to the Gators’ half-court consistency. 

Despite their legendary defense, the public is greatly overlooking the Cougars elite 3P shooting. Houston is the overall No. 1 team in the nation in 3P accuracy, converting at essentially a 40 percent rate (39.9%). Duke ranked inside the top-40 in 3P defense, and the Cougars shot a scalding-hot 45.5% (10-of-22) from beyond the arc. 

Houston has been near or atop our FTN College Basketball Power Rankings all season and was one of our favorite NCAA Tournament Futures. Over the past four years, Houston has reached the Sweet 16 or better, despite battling a key injury each season. The Cougars are finally healthy, culminating in their best chance to earn the school’s first national championships. Houston lost their prior two trips to the final game, losing to NC State in 1983 and Georgetown in 1984. Add in the game being played in Houston’s home state, and I’m backing Kelvin Sampson’s crew to finish off a magical season as the 2025 National Champion. 

The Pick

Houston +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)