NBA Game of the Day, 2/26: Spurs vs. Rockets
Alex Christenson
The draft, free agency, player movement and aging curves all factor into which teams improve or decline from one season to the next, but do you know what can often tell us as much as any of that?
Math.
Before all the offseason transactions, there are some teams we can say with relatively surety will see a big increase or decrease in their fantasy scoring from one year to the next. And the reason for that is that they had seen a big move in the other direction the year before.
From 2006 to 2023, 63 teams improved their fantasy output (PPR scoring, offense only — so QB, RB, WR, TE) by at least 20% from one year to the next. Another 27 went down by at least that amount. That’s 90 teams. Of those 90, 68 (75.6%) went the other way in the third year (improvers got worse, decliners got better). So it’s not foolproof, but it is a pretty strong indicator — if a team sees a wild swing in one direction one year, it’s likely going to move in the other direction the next.
This is independent of what those teams do in the offseason. For example: From 2017 to 2018, the Browns, armed with first overall pick Baker Mayfield, saw their fantasy point total climb by 33.0%, from 1116.0 points to 1484.8. Things were looking up, and they were looking up even more when the Browns committed to Nick Chubb as the RB1 and, most importantly, traded for Odell Beckham Jr. before 2019. Mayfield was a top-five fantasy pick, Beckham was supposed to reach new heights, Chubb and Jarvis Landry and David Njoku filled out one of the most exciting offensive units in the league.
In 2019, the Browns’ fantasy scoring dropped by 12.2%.
When everything goes right one year, something goes wrong the next. When everything goes wrong one year, something goes right. A small swing — 5%, 10% — can continue. A big one? Everything we know tells us it’ll go the other way.
So below are the teams most likely to decline in fantasy scoring in 2025. And it’s true no matter what they do this offseason.
Friday: The teams most likely to improve in 2025.
5 Teams Most Likely to Decline in Fantasy in 2025
Last year, the five teams in this space were the Rams, Texans, Ravens, 49ers and Bears. Those five teams increased an average of 20.1% from 2022 to 2023. We only hit three, with the Rams, Texans and 49ers all dropping, while the Ravens increased by another 13.5% and the Bears by 10.0%. But while the Bears are a loss for this exercise, considering the team added a new quarterback, a new running back and two new receivers — all high profile — between 2023 and 2024, an increase of a mere 10.0% has to still be seen as a disappointment. Following this guidance last year might have cost you Lamar Jackson and/or Derrick Henry, but it also would have helped you steer clear of some of the biggest pitfalls of the 2024 fantasy season.
(Reminder: All fantasy scoring is PPR, and offensive players only.)
1. New York Jets (+31.7%)
2023 fantasy scoring: 1,091.1 PPR points
2024 fantasy scoring: 1,437.3
What Went Right
Honestly, not as much as you’d guess for a team that improved its fantasy scoring by 31.7%. Aaron Rodgers was a bust, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall regressed, and while Davante Adams was good upon his arrival, he wasn’t “vintage Davante Adams”-good. Two main things worked in favor of the Jets’ fantasy scoring last year: First, the Zach Wilson Jets were a mess that also featured starts from Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle, so any functional quarterback was going to do better. And second, the Jets’ defense took a big step back (from third in team defensive DVOA to 20th), leaving that much more work for the offense to do.
Why They Might Fall Off
We don’t know who the quarterback will be in 2025. We don’t know if Adams will return. Wilson appears unhappy at WR. The offensive line is more question mark than not. There are, uh, a lot of paths for a decline.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+27.0%)
2023 fantasy scoring: 1,382.5
2024 fantasy scoring: 1,755.6
What Went Right
Baker Mayfield reached new heights in (deep breath) attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, first downs, passer rating and (by a whole, whole lot) fantasy scoring. Chris Godwin missed time, but Mike Evans got 1,000 yards (again) and Jalen McMillan was a top-10 receiver over the final month. And after several seasons of “eh, good enough” out of the backfield, the Buccaneers rode Rachaad White and rookie sensation Bucky Irving to the second-most RB fantasy points of any team.
Why They Might Fall Off
Well, Godwin is heading into free agency. OC Liam Coen left to coach the Jaguars, and a new offensive coordinator is always a question mark (though it certainly worked last year). As good as Irving was, betting on a fourth-round rookie to be a top-flight back in his second year is a big ask. And while it hasn’t happened yet, Evans will be 32 in Week 1 and eventually will stop notching 1,000-yard seasons.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (+18.4%)
2023 fantasy scoring: 1,488.7
2024 fantasy scoring: 1,762.9
What Went Right
Two things: First, Zack Moss got hurt, and second, the defense was awful on toast. That sounds mean, but Moss’ injury opened the door to Chase Brown being a top-10 back, and the defense being awful forced Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to go nuclear on the league, with Chase putting up only the fourth 400-point season for a wide receiver ever. Even Higgins, who missed five games, was WR5 in points per game. It was the perfect storm for the Bengals to have the second-most fantasy points for any offense in 2024, behind only the Super Saiyan Lions.
Why They Might Fall Off
The chances of Higgins leaving this offseason appear to be dwindling amid reports the team will either extend him or franchise tag him again. Still, if he does leave, that’s a big loss for the offense. Brown’s breakout season was beyond anyone’s expectation, so there’s a real shot he drops off (or the Bengals bring in a running mate who won’t be as efficient). And the Bengals basically have no choice but to put a lot of resources toward the defense this offseason, which should lead to lower-scoring games in general.
4. Atlanta Falcons (+14.9%)
2023 fantasy scoring: 1,277.7
2024 fantasy scoring: 1,467.5
What Went Right
Kirk Cousins wasn’t vintage Kirk Cousins, but do you know what else he wasn’t? Desmond Ridder. Cousins wasn’t the fix of all fixes in Atlanta, but after a couple years adrift in the Ridder/Taylor Heinicke/Marcus Mariota wilderness, he represented at least part of a fix. The signing of Darnell Mooney worked wonders, Bijan Robinson started to look like the top-eight pick he was drafted as, and while the bloom is fully off the Kyle Pitts rose, he’s gone from 1 touchdown as a rookie to 2 to 3 and now to 4, so at the very least, he’s due for a record-shattering 30 touchdowns in the year 2050.
Why They Might Fall Off
This one is a bit tough, because Michael Penix Jr. looked pretty good in relief of Cousins at the end of the season, and Robinson and Drake London are still young enough to be exciting. Even Mooney looks like a find since he’s been rescued from the wasteland of Chicago. Pitts is a disappointment, and he might be gone by next season, but things are generally looking up in Atlanta. But the kicker: The Falcons were uncommonly healthy last year. Ignore Cousins being benched, the Falcons collection of top weapons (Robinson, London, Mooney, Pitts, Tyler Allgeier, Ray-Ray McCloud, KhaDarel Hodge, Ross Dwelley) combined to miss exactly one game in 2024. They won’t be that healthy again.
5. Carolina Panthers (+14.4%)
2023 fantasy scoring: 1,130.0
2024 fantasy scoring: 1,292.4
What Went Right
Early? Nothing. Adam Thielen got hurt, Bryce Young got benched, Jonathon Brooks never got off the ground. But late in the season, it was way better. After returning from his benching, Young looked like a functional starter. Thielen was a borderline WR1 after his return from injury. And despite only getting 23 snaps from Brooks over three games, the Panthers struck gold with fourth-year man Chuba Hubbard, who was the RB12 before missing the final two weeks.
Why They Might Fall Off
Another hard one, and part of the problem with Nos. 4 and 5 is that their improvements were less than is typical in this range. But Young still has more career starts with under 150 yards (7) than with over 250 (4). Yes, he improved, but there wasn’t anywhere to go but up, and if he takes even a small step back to what we saw early in his career, the offense will struggle. Thielen continues to defy traditional aging curves, but he’ll be 35 in Week 1, and the depth chart behind him is “headlined” by two 2024 rookies in Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, who combined for under 1,000 yards, 6 touchdowns and three top-20 weekly finishes.
