Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 12 of the fantasy football season is here, and it’s crunch time. Bye-mageddon is upon us, the fantasy playoffs loom, and every decision matters. My “10 Things” is your survival guide, with insights to help you navigate the chaos and emerge victorious. We’ll uncover hidden gems, identify potential busts, and even offer some playoff strategies.
Don’t let this crucial week slip away – let’s conquer Week 12.
1. Must-Start Jauan Jennings Comes with a Catch
Jauan Jennings finds himself primed to play an integral part in the Niners’ passing attack for the rest of the season. He’s unsurprisingly much more productive without Brandon Aiyuk in the lineup (and he’s out for the season). Thanks to the FTN Splits Tool, I found Jennings averages 5.0 more targets, 4.3 more receptions and 6.8 more fantasy points sans Aiyuk. Brock Purdy is leaning on him when it matters most, as well. Despite playing in only eight games this season, Jennings is tied for the fifth-most third-down receptions. But be careful before declaring him a “league winner.” San Francisco has a brutal matchup schedule for the rest of the season. Four of their six remaining games rank among the 12 worst DVOA-Adjusted Points Against matchups for wide receivers. Green Bay is eighth toughest, Buffalo 11th Chicago fourth, and Miami round out the top five. Lock him into lineups, but you should slightly curb your enthusiasm.
2. Can Collins’ Return Save Stroud’s Season?
C.J. Stroud‘s sophomore season has been subpar for fantasy purposes. The return of stud wide receiver Nico Collins from injury can prop up Stroud’s production potential. In games without Collins this season, Stroud is averaging 7.9 fewer completions, 75.2 fewer passing yards and almost one fewer touchdown. But storm clouds are on the horizon for those expecting Stroud to return to stud status. In Week 12, Stroud faces a Titans defense that has held nine of 10 quarterbacks under 250 passing yards and held half from throwing multiple touchdowns. Week 13 is a mouthwatering matchup with the Jags. But then, things get gross. After a Week 14 bye, the Texans start the fantasy playoffs with the Dolphins, the 5th worst DVOA-APA matchup for quarterbacks. That’s followed by a second-round matchup against the formidable Chiefs defense, who rank 12th. I prefer to hold him, but I have zero issues dropping Stroud in 1QB formats. You’re not dropping him in superflex, but his must-start status is gone.
3. QJ’s Future Looks Bright with a Healthy Herbert
In the Week 10 edition of “10 Things,” I touched on Justin Herbert‘s bolting back to relevance (I’m not even sorry about that one). His resurrection has brought Quentin Johnston along for the ride as well. Among wide receivers with at least 15 targets since Week 9, Johnston has the second-highest average depth of target (17.9 yards) and third-most touchdowns (3), and he is tied for the sixth-highest yards per route run (2.8). Over that same stretch, Herbert is tied for the highest average target depth, including the fourth-most attempts (15) and the most completions (8) of 20 yards or more. Facing a Ravens defense that’s given up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL, QJ is a must-start this week. More often than not, he’ll be in fantasy lineups for the rest of 2024.
4. Tommy Cutlets’ Targets Could Make This Giant a League Winner
One of the few fantasy-viable Giants could see a bump in production, and it may not be who you think. As the poverty franchise turns to Tommy DeVito with the long overdue benching of “Danny Dimes” Daniel Jones, rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. could see a significant increase in targets.
Per FTN StatsHub, DeVito had a 16.0% checkdown rate last season, which would rank fourth among quarterbacks this season, nearly doubling Jones’ rate of 8.9%. Another lost season for the once proud franchise sets up plenty of playing-from-behind passing work, and Tracy’s in line for a hefty helping.
5. A Pre-Thanksgiving Feast for Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving isn’t an every-week start just yet, but in Week 12, you’ll want him in your lineup. Over the Buc’s last four games, Irving has seen a 39.8% snap share, compared to 51.7% for Rachaad White. That changes when Tampa is winning. Using StatsHub‘s advanced filtering, I discovered that Irving’s snap share jumps to 51.6% when playing with a lead, with White’s dropping to 48.4. Tampa should have a lead in most, if not all, of Week 12, facing the previously mentioned poverty franchise Giants.
Irving has been electrifying when on the field. He ranks first in the NFL with an 8.3% juke rate and is inside the top 10 in avoided tackle percentage, yards before contact, yards after contact, offensive yards per carry, and explosive run rate. Irving has the potential to dominate the Giants and finish as the overall RB1 in Week 12. Don’t be surprised if he goes nuclear.
6. Bye Week Blues? No Further Than Indy
If you need to take a big swing with wide receiver fill-ins this week, consider this duo. Thanks to the return of Anthony Richardson under center, the Colts offer up a couple of widely available options in Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. In games started by Richardson, Pierce has an average depth target of 20.7 yards, with Mitchell’s at 17.5. A matchup with the Lions and a projected game total of over 50 only sweetens the recipe. Detroit comes in as the fourth-best DVOA-APA matchup for wide receivers. The Lions allow the fourth-highest average depth of target (8.6) and have given up the second-most air yards this season (3,040).
7. Jacobs Climbing the Ladder of RB Ranks
Upside wins fantasy championships, but consistency is an often-overlooked part of the formula. Josh Jacobs has been solid yet unspectacular in most of his starts this season, with just one game under ten fantasy points, finishing as an RB2 in six of nine games.
Among running backs with at least 30 carries since Week 7, Jacobs ranks in the top 10 in yards per carry, avoided tackle rate, offensive yards per carry, and explosive run rate. His average of 3.9 yards after contact is the best in the league, and he’s averaging 3.8 targets per game, according to FTN StatsHub. Over that period, Jordan Love has the fourth-highest checkdown rate (17.9%) among quarterbacks with multiple starts. Often overlooked himself, Josh Jacobs is heating up and could be an essential part of championship rosters.
8. Browns vs. Steelers a Fantasy Wasteland
I’d consider it a safe bet that most aren’t starting many Cleveland players on a regular basis, but even in bye-mageddon, you want to avoid the Browns. Thursday, Cleveland faces their division rival Pittsburgh, who boasts some of the most difficult DVOA-APA matchups at nearly every position. The Steelers rank as the toughest matchup for quarterbacks, ninth worst for running backs and 10th worst for wide receivers. Do everything you can to not start Jameis Winston. Pittsburgh has allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns, only one to throw over 300 yards, and held seven under 250 passing yards. You may not have a choice, but Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore are all poor plays in Week 12.
9. Pacheco Active? Start Him
Isiah Pacheco is back to practicing and is expected to return as early as this week. If he does return, Week 12 offers up a matchup with a Carolina Panthers defense that ranks as the best matchup for running backs, according to DVOA-APA. Pacheco likely gets eased in, especially with Kareem Hunt filling in admirably. Over the past three weeks, Hunt has had the most goal-line carries among all running backs but converted just one of them. Hunt is in the bottom 10 in explosive run rate and offensive yards per carry. Pacheco should immediately get goal-line work, and a must-start when active.
10. Playoff Prep: Stash These Defenses Now
During the regular season, I don’t recommend rostering more than one defense in fantasy. But with the playoffs a few weeks away, it’s time to be proactive and stash defenses for the fantasy playoffs. Some of my favorites to consider:
- Tampa Bay: LAC, DAL, CAR
- Green Bay: SEA, NO, MIN
- LA Chargers: TB, DEN, NE
- Indianapolis: DEN, TEN, NYG
- Arizona: NE, CAR, LAR
Most of these are widely available, and as your bench gets more room with bye weeks passing, reserve a spot for a defense if you have the room.
