Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The fantasy football playoffs are within sight, but Week 11 brings new challenges. My “10 Things” has the intel you need for that final playoff push! This week, I cover a couple of breakouts, uncover tight-end sleepers, and identify potential landmines that could blow up your championship aspirations.
1. Don’t Underestimate Estime
It’s a small sample size, but it appears Audric Estime has begun his takeover of the Broncos’ backfield. Estime saw 14 carries on 46.4% of Denver’s snaps in Week 10, with Javonte Williams receiving just a single carry on 26.8%. He didn’t overly impress, tallying 53 yards at a clip of 3.8 yards per carry, and didn’t receive a target. But he did see 50% of the goal-line carries, with Williams and quarterback Bo Nix seeing one each. I would pause before throwing him into your starting lineup, but he should be rostered in all leagues.
2. RB1jan?
In the Week 5 edition of this article, I wrote that despite a “slow” start to the season, any grumblings about Bijan Robinson being a bust were balderdash. Since Week 6, Robinson has had five straight top-10 PPR finishes among running backs, three top-five finishes, and he was the RB1 overall in Week 10.
According to FTN StatsHub, Robinson has the fifth-highest yards per carry among backs with a minimum of 55 attempts. He’s in the top 10 in avoided tackle rate (25%), yards before contact (2.2), and yards after contact (3.0). Robinson had six combined touchdowns over that period, and one behind position was leaders Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon, who each had seven. As I wrote back in October, RB1 overall on the season is still very much in play for Bae- Bijan Robinson.
3. Knockin’ Dobbins — Sharing the Load with Gus Bus
I touched on J.K. Dobbins‘ efficiency dropping a few weeks ago, and he rewarded my badmouthing him with his best performance of the season. But the Week 10 return of Gus Edwards provided enough evidence to remind us to pump the breaks on Dobbins’ fantasy potential ceiling. Per FTN StatsHub, Gus Bus had five fewer carries but led the Chargers in rushing with 55 yards. Edwards’s 5.5 yards per carry bested Dobbins’ 3.3 average by more than two yards. Edwards also doubled Dobbins in red zone carries, four to two. Dobbins saw 62.5% of the Chargers rushing attempts in five games without Edwards. With Edwards in the lineup, that drops by nearly 20% to 43.8%. A committee approach would hit the dimmer switch on Dobbins’ ceiling. He’s still a weekly starter, but Edwards’s return makes Dobbins a much more volatile fantasy asset.
4. A Star Reborn in Nashville
Despite the potential for more volume with DeAndre Hopkins traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, Calvin Ridley‘s wretched start to the season deterred any hopes of a resurgence. After comparing his pre- and post-trade stats using the FTN Splits Tool, that was a mistake.
Even with Mason Rudolph and Will Levis tossing him the ball, Ridley’s production has surged. In three games without Hopkins, Ridley’s targets and receptions per game have increased by nearly five pieces. His average receiving yards have more than tripled (29.2 to 100), and fantasy points per game went from less than eight to over 20. While I don’t expect Ridley to average over 20 points per game for the rest of the season, he’s firmly back as an every-week start in most formats.
5. Thomas’ Troubles: A Temporary Dip or a Sign of Decline?
Brian Thomas Jr. looked to be in contention for the top rookie wide receiver after a scorching start to the season. Thomas caught five touchdowns in his first eight games, averaging 15.5 points and 7.4 targets per game. But he’s seen four or fewer targets over his last three, totaling seven catches for 94 yards and one touchdown over that timeframe. There are valid reasons for the drop in production, however. He’s been battling a chest injury and had to deal with Mac Jones under center for the Jags in Week 10. Trevor Lawrence is out again in Week 11 but is expected to return after their Week 11 bye.
Even in a great matchup against Detroit (second-best DVOA Adjusted Points Against for WR and second-best WR/CB Matchup), you can’t trust him with Jones under center. But he’s a buy-low who could pay dividends down the stretch.
6. The End of an Era or Just a Blip?
The band may be back together, but they sound more like Puddle of Mudd than The Rolling Stones. Those holding out for a return to WR1 status for Davante Adams‘ reunion with Aaron Rodgers are better off taking a darkness retreat. Adams has scored fewer than double-digit fantasy points in three of four games since joining the Jets, despite averaging just under 10 targets per game. Among wide receivers with at least 20 targets over that timeframe, Adams has the fifth-worst yards per target (5.3) and tied for the 10th-lowest yards per route run (1.5), per FTN StatsHub. With a Week 12 bye on the horizon and the Jets a complete dumpster fire, Adams is a low-end, volatile WR2 at best for the rest of the season. Sell if you can.
7. The Rookie QB Bucking Expectations
Surprisingly, the second-best rookie quarterback may be Bo Nix. He lacks the ceiling of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, but he’s been consistent partially thanks to rushing production but also due to a much-improved completion percentage. According to FTN StatsHub, Nix had a 60% completion percentage from the season’s first four weeks. Over his last four games, Nix has seen a nearly 10% increase to 67.5. After throwing just one touchdown over the first four weeks, Nix has thrown 11 since Week 5. He’s a rock-solid QB2 in superflex and a viable starter if you lost Dak Prescott or are stuck with an underperforming star.
8. The Cardinal with a Championship Schedule
James Conner is quietly putting up a stellar season, yet nobody seems to care. Conner ranks as the RB9 overall in PPR leagues, finishing inside the top 15 in 50% of his games and inside the top five in three. He has the third-best avoided tackle rate (30.8), accounting for 55.8% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts. He’s on bye this week, so there may be a slight window of opportunity to trade for him. You’ll understand why when you look at his Patriots/Panthers/Rams playoff schedule.
Conner has top-six DVOA-APA matchups in the first two rounds and a decent championship matchup against the Rams. Make a move for him if you can, his schedule screams league winner.
9. This TE Could Rescue Your Roster
The story for tight ends in fantasy is the same every season. Preseason hype has the masses saying, “Tight end is deeper than ever.” The season starts, reality hits, and we realize that tight end is once again a wasteland. But if you’re in a pinch, peek at the waiver wire and see if Jonnu Smith is available. He’s seen volume recently, averaging 6.2 targets per game since Week 5, and has a great matchup this week. Las Vegas ranks as the fifth-best TE matchup according to DVOA-APA.
He has a solid schedule over the next few weeks but brutal matchups with Houston (worst TE matchup), San Francisco and Cleveland (fifth-worst TE matchup) for the fantasy playoffs. But considering the TE position’s landscape, you could do much worse.
10. A Hail Mary Pickup for Superflex Managers
Dak Prescott is out for the rest of the season after having surgery to repair his injured hamstring. Cooper Rush started for the Cowboys in Week 10, finishing with … zero fantasy points. It was an abysmal start, Rush throwing for a meager 45 yards and losing two fumbles. Don’t laugh when you read the following sentence. If you have the room on your bench in superflex, take a flier on Trey Lance. We don’t have to rehash his history, but he played in Week 10 when Rush was benched, and he has a shot to see significant playing time if (when?) Rush’s struggles continue. Do I expect much of anything? No. But Lance was once a second-rounder in superflex leagues thanks to his rushing prowess. If he becomes the Cowboys’ starter, there’s a chance he could become fantasy-viable. A snowball’s chance, but a chance nonetheless.
