MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model American League Championship Series Projections and Odds
MLB Dream
Frank Brank
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10%. The last five are particularly spicy and where I think the slate is most likely to be broken.
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 6
1. Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
What a difference a few weeks makes. The early weeks of the season had little offense and chalk busting left and right. The last couple have had more scoring and plenty of chalk hitting in a big way. This week strikes me as another one where chalk is largely good chalk, so when we fade it, we want to do so with purpose. For example, deviating from Tony Pollard with a Tennessee stack, hoping they need to throw it a bunch makes a lot of sense. It’s a great matchup for Pollard, but it’s an even better matchup for Will Levis. The Colts are boosting RB production by 19% (sixth most), QB production by 29% (third most).
2. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
Part of the allure of Will Levis is my love for DeAndre Hopkins. I came into the year expecting him to be the No. 1 over Calvin Ridley and he seems to be exactly that. Hopkins is way too cheap, and it doesn’t look like he’ll carry much rostership so he works in any kind of lineup, whereas Calvin Ridley is only viable within a Levis stack (I love the double stack).
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