2024 MVP May Not Have Wide Receivers, But He’ll Have Help

The MVP is a narrative award, and more and more, the preferred narrative seems to be “what did you accomplish on your own?”  Patrick Mahomes didn’t win his second MVP in 2020 or 2021 when his Chiefs had the best record in the AFC, when he threw for 4,700-plus yards and 37-plus touchdowns, but when Tyreek Hill caught 1,200 or more of those yards and nine or more of those touchdowns.  Mahomes won it in 2022 when his top two wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling fell short of 1,000 yards and when a running back in Jerick McKinnon finished fourth on the team in receiving.  Dak Prescott didn’t win the MVP in 2023 when his Cowboys had the best record in the NFC, when he led his position with 410 completions and 36 passing touchdowns, but when CeeDee Lamb became a star with 135 of those catches and 12 of those touchdowns and racked up 1,749 yards.  Lamar Jackson won it when he led quarterbacks with 821 rushing yards and without a receiver with even 900 receiving yards.

It’s only been a month in 2024, but the MVP picture looks much the same.  Patrick Mahomes (+300), Josh Allen (+350), and Lamar Jackson (+700) are the three candidates with better than +1,000 odds.  And all three players seem poised to be defined by their modest help at wide receiver.

Mahomes finally found his Hill replacement in second-round sophomore Rashee Rice  Rice paced the position with 288 yards and two touchdowns the first three weeks.  But then he injured his knee on Sunday and went on injured reserve on Thursday.  He may not play another snap this season.

Allen’s Bills mirrored Mahomes’ Chiefs in trading away their star receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason.  And like Mahomes in 2022, Allen has continued to excel with a relative no-name in Khalil Shakir and a rookie in Keon Coleman as his top two wide receivers.

Jackson has 247 pounds of new help in free agent addition Derrick Henry  But Henry’s continued rushing success might hurt the former’s MVP chances more than it helps.  And Henry is a relative non-factor as a receiver, and yet Jackson can still point to a running back in Justice Hill and a tight end in Isaiah Likely as his leading receivers to date.

Allen and Jackson at least have made their non-traditional top targets work for them.  Both quarterbacks rank top five in overall passing DYAR.  But neither cracks the top 10 in passing DYAR on their wide receiver targets.  Neither does Mahomes despite the fact that he had Rice for the bulk of his September.  And a broader look as the last two decades paints that as a recent trend.

The History of QB MVPs and WR Targets

From 2001 to 2014, 12 quarterbacks won the MVP — including two co-winners in 2003.  All 14 finished top 10 in passing DYAR on their wide receiver targets.  And 10 of the 14 finished in the top 5.  The most successful passing teams were pushing principles like shotgun and three-receiver sets.  And as player safety rules made it safer for smaller receivers to run routes anywhere on the field, the league saw a wide receiver renaissance where slot receivers like Wes Welker and Brandon Stokley complemented their more traditional star teammates Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne and routinely produced similar receiving numbers.

Cam Newton and Jackson shattered that traditional MVP mold in the most recent decade.  But even if you prefer to attribute their outlier wide receiver DYAR rankings to their unique rushing versatility, the broader trend is readily apparent.  MVP quarterbacks lean less on their wide receivers now.  Four of the last nine winners finished outside the top 10 in DYAR on wide receiver targets.  Seven of the last nine finished outside the top 5.  And Matt Ryan is the most recent MVP to finish first in DYAR on wide receiver targets in 2016, nearly a decade ago.

The MVP narratives theory makes sense of the recent trend and seems perfectly suited to punctuate the 2024 award race.  “Mahomes drags an aging Travis Kelce and a bevy of failed receiver draft picks to his third MVP.”  “Allen does it all for the AFC champion Bills.”  The headlines write themselves.

But a second look at the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens offenses reveals a different truth.  Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson may not have the wide receiver help of their MVP predecessors.  But their teams’ reliance on their tight ends and running backs is more a feature than a bug.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens are three of the biggest recent embracers of two-tight-end formations.  On one level, that is a run-promoting response to the two-high safety revolution that seemed specifically designed to prevent Mahomes and Allen from throwing deep and racking up explosive plays and touchdowns.  But more subtly, those second-tight-end looks have helped their teams’ passing offenses.

For the Chiefs, the second tight end helps draw a preferred defender for top tight end Travis Kelce  Over the last two-plus seasons, Kelce has seen his rate of a defensive back in coverage jump from 62.9% as the lone tight end to 75.8% with another tight end on the field.  Many tight ends would rather have a linebacker that they can out-race down the field.  But Kelce wins with his unusual twitch for a player of his size, and he leans into that skill set with a focused and relatively shallow route tree.  He’s run a hitch or curl, in or dig, or quick out on 61.3% of his targeted routes since the start of 2023.  Cornerbacks and safeties cannot prevent those completions any better than linebackers can.  And after the catch, the corners and safeties have a harder time tackling him.  Compared to his plays as the lone tight end, Kelce has improved from 7.6 to 9.6 yards per target in two-tight-end sets, bolstered by his jump from 4.9 to 6.0 average yards after the catch with a smaller average defender in coverage.

Buffalo Bills

For the Bills, a second tight end seems simply to have been their easiest path to an improved receiver room.  They saw a run of wide receiver draft picks in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison just before their 25th pick in the 2023 draft.  And rather than reach for a more traditional outside receiver like Jonathan Mingo half a round before he eventually went, the Bills took a tight end in Dalton Kincaid that plays like a wide receiver.  The sophomore tight end has run 55.4% of his routes from the slot this season.  And he has clearly been one of the most efficient Bills receivers.  Kincaid (20.7%), Keon Coleman (39.5%), and Khalil Shakir (48.4%) all have DVOA rates above 20% while the team’s secondary receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling (-41.0%), Curtis Samuel (-37.5%), and Mack Hollins (-30.1%) are mired below -30%.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens’ seesaw from first to 29th and back to second in two-tight-end looks the last few years may reflect their evolving run versus pass priorities.  New-for-2023 offensive coordinator Todd Monken pushed the boundaries of his predecessor Greg Roman’s run-first approach and let Lamar throw deep and outside the numbers to his wide receivers last season.  But you don’t pay for a Ferrari like Derrick Henry and then leave it in the garage.

Fortunately for the Ravens, Monken has found a two-tight-end formula in 2024 that promotes Henry’s power running game and Jackson’s expanded passing game simultaneously.  Mark Andrews’ and Isaiah Likely’s 256- and 245-pound frames are obvious boons for the former effort as run-blockers.  But Likely can run a wide receiver’s route tree.  That makes him a worthy featured target in favorable matchups, like he saw against the Chiefs on opening night when he exploded for nine catches, 111 yards, and a touchdown.  But it also allows him to pull defenders down the field to create space for his teammates to catch shallower targets and run for more yards after the catch.  In this example from Week 4, Likely ran a corner route with a break to the left sideline close to 20 yards down the field.  That left Justice Hill with just one defender within 10 yards of his catch at the line of scrimmage.  And after he made that defender miss, Hill scampered for a 17-yard gain.

Mike McDaniel made similar clear-out routes a core principle of his Dolphins offense with its speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.  And Ravens receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman have leaned into those deeper routes to clear space the first month of this season, too.  But Likely’s ability to do the same creates a bigger challenge for opposing defenses.  And he should continue to spur explosive Jackson plays that masquerade as the simple dump-offs that leave people lauding Jackson — the same as they laud Mahomes and Allen — for his continued production “without any help.”