2024 College Basketball Power Rankings (Dec. 16)
Mike Randle
Well, we’ve made it to another Grand Slam. After a long two month clay court season, we’ve reached the conclusion in Paris for the French Open. Defending Champion Rafael Nadal will unfortunately miss his first French Open since 2004. Additionally absent on the men’s side includes Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Andy Murray, and 2023 semifinalist Marin Cilic. On the women’s side, Simona Halep, Paula Badosa, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Raducanu, and Ajla Tomljanovic will all miss the event. Iga Swiatek will go for her third Roland Garros title, which would give her the fourth most at Roland Garros in the Open Era. So, let’s dive straight into today’s featured play.
Carlos Alcaraz To Win + Both Win A Set
(+135, 2 Units, Caesars)
Today’s focus will be on the first of the two Men’s semifinals, which will take place Friday morning. If there was one potential matchup before the draw everyone wanted to see, this is the one, and while it isn’t happening in the Finals, the stakes are just as significant in the semifinals. It’s World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz versus World No. 2 and 22-time Grand Slam Champion Novak Djokovic for a spot in the French Open Finals, which the winner will be a heavy favorite to hoist the trophy. It will be the first meeting at Grand Slam level for these two, and their second overall, with their only previous meeting coming last season in the Madrid semifinals, where Alcaraz came from a set down to win, and eventually go on to collect his first Madrid title.
Given Alcaraz has been favored to win the French Open virtually all season, it’s no surprise to see him open as a favorite. Perhaps to some, it’s surprising that he’s as short a favorite as he is. Well, when you drop just three games to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first two sets of the quarterfinals, the market is going to respect you a little more than it had prior to the match. This season, Alcaraz is 35-3. Of those three losses, he was injured and/or cramping badly in two of them, then the third was the shocking loss to Fabian Marozsan in Rome. He’s bounced back nicely since that loss to Marozsan, dropping just one set in his first five matches at Roland Garros. Djokovic is 25-4 in 2023, but three of those four losses have come on clay. Djokovic additionally missed Madrid due to an elbow injury, which is no longer an issue, per Djokovic.
All that said, this is going to be a back-and-forth battle. It’s hard to imagine either player losing in straight sets, given how high a level they both play at. My two biggest concerns are with Djokovic, however. The first being that he has shown a tendency over the last couple seasons to take a bit of time settling into best of five matches. The second is that Djokovic may not be the best shot maker in this matchup and as scary as that sounds, if Djokovic is forced to play defensive tennis, doesn’t that begin to sound similar to his matches with Rafael Nadal on clay? Now, that’s not a comparison to Nadal for Alcaraz, but Djokovic likes to be in control, and between the ball striking, shot making, and aggressive nature of Alcaraz’s baseline game, it’s tough to see Djokovic being the one dictating a majority of the time. While I believe the line itself should be a little closer, I still view Alcaraz as the favorite in this one, and with the belief that this goes four, if not five sets, I will take the plus money on Alcaraz to win with both winning a set. The 38.5 game total is also in play for those who may not have this market available. Sit back, and enjoy what very well could be the match of the year.
