Best bets for upcoming tennis exhibitions

We’ve seen a handful of tennis exhibitions throughout quarantine, and now they’re essentially being used as a preseason leading up to the restart in August. Here’s a look at the upcoming schedule, along with who is in the field, as we approach the true return to play August 3.

Thiem's 7: July 10-11

• Dominic Thiem, Matteo Berrettini, Andrey Rublev, Roberto Bautista Agut

UTR Spain Series: July 10-12, 17-19, 24-26

• Bautista Agut, Pablo Carreño Busta, Albert Ramos Viñolas, Roberto Carballés Baena, Jaume Munar, Feliciano López

World Team Tennis: July 12-Aug 1

• Sofia Kenin, Kim Clijsters, Danielle Collins, Sloane Stephens, Eugenie Bouchard, Monica Puig, Venus Williams, Milos Raonic, Sam Querrey, Taylor Fritz, Jack Sock

Berlin EXO Series: July 13-15, 17-19

• Thiem, Jan-Lennard Struff, Jannik Sinner, Tommy Haas, Elina Svitolina, Kiki Bertens, Petra Kvitova, Julia Goerges, Carolina Garcia

Tipsport Elite: July 18-20

• Karolína Plíšková, Kvitova, Markéta Vondroušová, Karolína Muchová, Katerina Siniaková, Kristýna Plíšková

Overall, there are some high-quality events, and perhaps a couple more to be added over the next few weeks. All in all, there are going to be plenty of opportunities to get a fix of tennis in the sports betting world. Let’s look at Friday’s best bets.

Thiem’s 7

Thiem -2.5 Games (-110) vs Bautista Agut (7:30 AM EST)

• Thiem has the UTR edge at 15.95 vs 15.63
• Thiem also owns the Clay Elo Rating edge with a +150 rating on Bautista Agut
• I have Thiem with a 73% probability of winning (-270)
• Thiem is 17-1 on clay courts since quarantine began
• 94.1% Hold Rate (32/34) for Thiem in this event
• Bautista Agut is 0-14 on clay courts vs Top 10 opponents (2-12 ATS)

Rublev ML (+115) vs Berrettini (To follow Thiem/Bautista Agut)

• Both UTR and Elo Ratings indicate this matchup is a true toss up
• Using Rublev’s three-month trend UTR, he does have a 15.97 vs 15.71 advantage
• Rublev’s recent form dates back to the Adria Tour last month, but he’s returned to Kitzbuhel with a first-serve percentage sub 50% (around 15% below his usual number). He has managed to maintain a 75% hold rate, which is his career average at ATP Tour level. Additionally, his first and second serve points won percentages are both at career averages. Rublev’s return play is what has made him extremely difficult to beat, as he’s winning around 3.5% more return points on clay courts post quarantine than his career numbers indicate. Rublev has proven there’s margin for error with his service game, but if he regains the form we’re used to seeing, it’s hard to imagine just how difficult he’ll be to beat.
• Berrettini’s numbers on clay are quite good, but they dip a fair amount against top-50 players.
• Sixth match in seven days for Berrettini, plus travel on his off day

UTR La Liga MAPFRE (Spain)

Ramos -1.5 Games (-120) vs Martinez

• Ramos owns the UTR edge at 15.17 vs 15.06
• Additionally, he has a +170 edge in Clay Elo Rating, and overall Elo Rating indicates a 71% match win probability
• Martinez had zero ATP Tour Level wins prior to 2020 (six prior to quarantine)
• None of those six sport a better UTR than Albert Ramos
• At Barcelona vs opponents outside the ATP Top 100, Ramos is 8-0 overall, and 8-0 ATS

Carreño Busta -3.5 Games (-135) vs Taberner

• This will be the best opponent Taberner will have faced in his career per UTR
• Carreño Busta owns the edge in UTR with a massive 15.44 vs 14.75 advantage
• Elo Ratings indicate an even greater advantage, with Carreño Busta owning a +282 Clay Elo Rating differential, and +370 Overall Elo Rating differential, which maps out to an 86.5% match win probability (-641)
• Taberner owns a 35% Break Rate on clay courts, but just 14.5% against Top 100 opponents, while his hold rate dips from 74% to 66.7%. Additionally surrendering 10.4 breakpoints per match, while earning just 5.4. 
• Carreño Busta is 19-2 in his last 21 clay-court matches at ATP Tour Level against players outside the Top 100
• With a greater differential in overall level, Carreño Busta’s numbers see a major spike, as his hold and break rates jump to 84.7% and 41.7% respectively
• Taberner did play an Exhibition Series in Italy last week, where he needed three sets to get past three players with rankings of 154, 621, and 338, before losing to Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets whose UTR is 100th despite his 48th overall ranking.