Best bets for Sunday's tennis exhibition slate

We’ve seen a handful of tennis exhibitions throughout quarantine, and now they’re essentially being used as a preseason leading up to the restart in August. Here’s a look at the upcoming schedule, along with who is in the field, as we approach the true return to play August 3.

World Team Tennis: July 12-Aug 1

Sofia Kenin, Kim Clijsters, Danielle Collins, Sloane Stephens, Eugenie Bouchard, Monica Puig, Venus Williams, Milos Raonic, Sam Querrey, Taylor Fritz, Jack Sock

Berlin EXO Series: July 13-15, 17-19

Dominic Thiem, Jan-Lennard Struff, Jannik Sinner, Tommy Haas, Elina Svitolina, Kiki Bertens, Petra Kvitova, Julia Goerges, Carolina Garcia

UTR Spain Series: July 17-19, 24-26

Roberto Bautista Agut, Pablo Carreño Busta, Albert Ramos Viñolas, Roberto Carballés Baena, Jaume Munar, Feliciano López

Tipsport Elite: July 18-20

Karolína Plíšková, Kvitova, Markéta Vondroušová, Karolína Muchová, Kate?ina Siniaková, Kristýna Plíšková

Overall, there are some high-quality events, and perhaps a couple more to be added over the next few weeks. All in all, there are going to be plenty of opportunities to get a fix of tennis in the sports betting world. Let’s look at Sunday’s best bets.

World Team Tennis

NOTE: Rules and scoring are pretty unique in this event. Each team plays five sets, which includes one set each for Women’s Singles, Men’s Singles, Women’s Doubles, Men’s Doubles, and Mixed Doubles. Each set is first to five games, with no AD scoring. Per WTT rules, “coaches can substitute one player, per event (set), per gender at the conclusion of a point.” That said, at least in the beginning of this event, I’ll be keeping my unit size to 1u.

Sloane Stephens ML (+100) vs. Monica Puig – 4 PM ET

Puig has the UTR edge, but her sample is quite small having not played on hard courts since October
Elo Ratings give Sloane the slight advantage on hard courts and indicate a 53% win probability
Both played in Charleston (clay) a few weeks ago, with Puig looking noticeably rusty having not played in eight months
Going back to UTR, using their miniscule two-match samples, Stephens performed better, sporting a 12.64 UTR to Puig’s 12.38 (this at least shows their current level)
Puig piled up an exceedingly high number of unforced errors in Charleston (match rust will cause that). Playing on a quick hard court like this one gives her even less time to stay in rallies, which hurts when going up against a heavy hitter in Sloane, who plays with good pace
Factoring overall, recent UTR’s, along with Elo Ratings, I have Stephens with a 59% win probability (-144), giving her ML some good value

Jennifer Brady + Milos Raonic ML (-124) vs. CoCo Vandeweghe + Ryan Harrison – 8 PM EST

UTR differential is substantial, with Brady owning a 13.15 to 12.47 advantage
Additionally, Brady’s UTR from Charleston indicated she performed at a top 10 level
Vandeweghe went 0-3 in exhibitions, dropping all six sets, and has lost 12/14 sets against players with UTR’s above 12.75 since returning from injury last July
Great format to grab Raonic in, as he is one of the most efficient service players on tour (93% hold rate on hard courts since 2019)
15.74 to 14.38 UTR edge to Raonic
Harrison is just 3-9 vs top 50 opponents, with a 20% ace rate or better, posting a 4.7% break rate and just 0.76 BP’s per set
Neither have played since the ATP Tour suspended, so rust could come into play, but Raonic is the superior talent, with the best weapon