World Cup Betting Breakdown (Tuesday 11/22)

Argentina vs. Saudi Arabia (5 a.m. ET)
Denmark vs. Tunisia (8 a.m. ET)
Mexico vs. Poland (11 a.m. ET)
France vs. Australia (2 p.m. ET)

Match Day 3 includes Group C and D as we get our first slate of four games of the 2022 World Cup. The matches include Argentina/Saudi Arabia, Denmark/Tunisia, Mexico/Poland and France/Australia. We’ll break down each of these games individually, including my four most likely scores, as we continue to navigate through the best month of the sports year.

Argentina vs. Saudi Arabia

This one is probably the most straightforward match of the first round. Argentina has world-class players all over the pitch, Saudi Arabia mostly plays domestically within the Saudi League. Argentina are one of the tournament favorites, Saudi Arabia’s O/U for points in the tournament is 0.5. Argentina has Messi, Saudi Arabia … does not have a player of that caliber. You catch my drift? Argentina has long-term questions at GK in my opinion, but other than that, they are one of the most well-rounded teams in the tournament. I expect an out-and-out pasting of Saudi Arabia at the hands of Messi and Argentina. Typically, games that are expected to be blowouts are honestly the toughest to judge in tournaments, because you never know when a team will take its foot off the gas with so many games in a short span of days. I anticipated England calling off the dogs at 2:0 yesterday, and instead they wanted to rub Iran’s noses in it. 

Most Likely Scores

(All risking .2u, lines per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Argentina, 3-0 (+550)
• Argentina, 2-0 (+475)
• Argentina, 4-0 (+850)
• Argentina, 1-0 (+600)

Denmark vs. Tunisia

Denmark comes into their sixth WCF appearance off a stellar qualifying campaign that saw them go 9-0-1, allowing just 3 goals over the 900 minutes. Tunisia enters their sixth WCF appearance coming off a 2-0 friendly win against Iran and will be looking to shock the world and enter their first KO stage in the country’s history. If they are do so, they probably have to scratch out a point here against Denmark as France looms later. Denmark’s Andreas Skov Olsen will be looking to continue his good form from Qualifiers, where he had 8 goal contributions over the 10 games. I anticipate another grinder where Tunisia will be looking to buckle down and counter, and chances will be at an absolute premium.

Most Likely Scores

(All risking .2u, lines per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Denmark, 1-0 (+450)
• Denmark, 2-0 (+550)
• 1-1 draw (+650)
• 0-0 draw (+900)

Mexico vs. Poland

Mexico is coming off a relatively disappointing qualifying campaign, but here they are nonetheless, with their eighth consecutive appearance, 17th overall. Mexico is unbeaten in their last six World Cup openers, and I anticipate that to continue against a Polish side that has underwhelmed in previous WCFs. They do, of course, have Robert Lewandowski, all-world goal scorer who can flip a game on its head in a flash, in what will likely be his last World Cup. This will be a huge game for both teams as any points taken from this matchup will likely be the ones to push them into the knockout stage. I favor the under here as I think both defenses will be wanting to stay disciplined and pick their spots on the counter. Mexico’s speedster Chucky Lozano is lethal in the open, and if Mexico gets a chance to breakaway, look for him to either set Wolverhampton’s Raul Jimenez up, or take the chance himself.

Most Likely Scores

(All risking .2u, lines per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Mexico, 1-0 (+600)
• 1-1 draw (+475)
• 0-0 draw (+750)
• Poland, 1-0 (+700)

France vs. Australia

This is another mismatch that sees the reigning World Champion France take on the “Asian” mainstay of Australia. These two were in the same group in 2018 as well, which saw France take home the three points, 2-1. That was a much, much, deeper France team however, with legends of the game such as Karim Benzema, N’Golo Kante and Paul Pogba all absent from this year’s Finals. Luckily for France however, they still boast the deepest, or 2nd deepest, roster in this tournament. Kylian Mbappe is still there, and even at 23, is one of the most decorated players at his age in the game’s history. A 2nd World Cup, and back-to-back at that, would cement him among the greatest players of all-time, before he’s allowed to rent a car here in the US. Australia simply can’t match up with the talent level of France, at any position. Buckle up, Socceroo fans, we’re about to watch some masters at work.

Most Likely Scores

(All risking .2u, lines per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• France, 2-0 (+475)
• France, 3-0 (+650)
• France, 4-0 (+1200)
• France, 3-1 (+1100)

Bets

• Argentina -2 (-130, 1u)
• France to win outright/Argentina win to nil (-114, 1u)
• France Team Total Over 2 (-138, 1u)
• Mexico/Poland Draw (+210, .5u)
• Mexico/Poland u2 (-102, 1u)