NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dabbling with a bit of team golf, the PGA Tour heads to New Orleans this week for the Zurich Classic.
Played as a team event since 2017, we have plenty of history here in terms of course and scoring expectations.
Let’s dig into the scoring formats, field structure, and then talk a bit about names that might fit the course.
Course Fit
This week’s host venue is TPC Louisiana. Similar to last week, it’s another Pete Dye design.
Glancing at the scorecard we see a par 72 that stretches to 7,425 yards.
There are four par 4s that play over 475 yards but also a fair amount that allow you to hit less-than-driver off the tee if you want. With four attackable par 5s, it allows all play styles to score well but the big hitters often find it a bit easier to set up the eagle chances.
With a team format, the scoring is unique. They were play four-ball (best ball) in rounds one and three with the tougher, alternate-shot format played in rounds two and four.
Four of the six team champs have eclipsed the 25-under mark in the week of their win so it’s safe to say you have to take it low and keep taking it low this week.
When looking for course-fit standouts, I want names that excel in easy scoring environments and performance on overseeded bermuda greens is also a positive. The teams that show the largest jump when isolating these split stats are:
- Nick Hardy/Davis Riley
- Daniel Berger/Victor Perez
- Matt Kuchar/Steve Stricker
- Vince Whaley/Adam Long
- Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen
- Taylor Montgomery/Ben Griffin
- Justin Suh/Rico Hoey
- Garrick Higgo/Ryan Fox
- Francesco Molinari/Luke Donald
- Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith
There aren’t any past Zurich results in the split stats due to scoring formats, but last year’s winners still find their way to the top of this list. They are both playing at a low level in 2024 so maybe this event and scoring format will spark them back into form.
Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are on easy courses.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
There is a “big four” in the market with a huge drop off shown after the top four teams this week. As we’ve seen in the past here, though, there is a ton of variance in team golf with team formats, so it’s likely a good week to look past those top teams.
Zurich Classic Bets
I will start by saying that I advise a light week given the team format and huge field size. This is the toughest cut to make all year and some teams will play solid golf over the first two days but still find themselves packing their bags.
With that in mind, here are three outrights that look most appealing to me this week in NOLA.
Taylor Montgomery and Ben Griffin to Win (66-1 each-way for 5 places)
Both of these golfers excel when the scoring gets easier. It makes sense when you consider just how much they rely on their short games to score.
When courses play easier that typically means that it’s harder to separate from the field in the tee-to-green department so short-game wizards get a bit of a boost as a result.
Justin Suh and Rico Hoey to Win (100-1 each-way for 5 places)
If you’re looking for contrasting play styles then this team could be for you.
Hoey brings his standout ball-striking to the team while Suh is one of the best putters on the planet. Suh managed a top 25 here last year.
Hoey landed four podium finishes last year on the Korn Ferry circuit, so he’s flashed some upside.
Taylor Moore and Matt NeSmith to Win (40-1 each-way for 5 places)
I like NeSmith on a positional, Pete Dye design and his all-around skillset makes his an easy golfer to pair up with in all both team formats.
As for Moore, he carded three straight top-20 finishes before his putter cooled off last week at Harbour Town (T-58 finish). After a slow start to 2024, he’s driving it really well again.
This duo has proven they can contend here with back-to-back top 5s in two tries at the Zurich Classic.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
