Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Round one of the NBA playoffs continues, and so does the domination of home teams. The home team won all three of the games Monday night, but only one covered. That’s the beauty of the spread. It can take games where the favorite seems clear and makes them bettable by offering a handicap.
The other overwhelming trend is the success of unders. The total has gone under in nine of the first 11 games of the playoffs. That’s a small sample size and shooting is likely to regress positively, but pace has been slower — even slower than we’ve see in the playoffs in the past. We’ll keep an eye on both of those trends as the postseason continues.
For now, let’s look at the three games we have Tuesday, see what might happen and try to find some value in the betting markets.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Line – Timberwolves -3, 211.5
My Projection – Timberwolves 106, Suns 104
Key Injuries – Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson are questionable.
The Timberwolves won Game 1 handily, beating the Suns for the first time in their last five meetings. Minnesota had 10 more possessions than Phoenix thanks to a great offensive rebound performance. They also dominated the Suns in the paint where the Timberwolves scored 52 points, 18 more than their opponents. Jusuf Nurkic was only able to grab four rebounds in 27. In the nine minutes Drew Eubanks played, Phoenix lost by 14 points. In the four minutes Bol Bol played, Phoenix lost by five points. The Suns need to find a way keep the Timberwolves from getting offensive rebounds and slow them down in the paint. Phoenix didn’t shoot their best, but even if they had shot very well, they likely wouldn’t have made up for their disadvantage near the rim.
The spread in Game 1 closed with the Timberwolves as 2.5-point favorites, and the total was 213.5. The books haven’t changed the spread and adjusted the total down a few points even though Game 1 went over the closing total. I make Minnesota two-point favorites with a total of 210, which puts me right in line with the current odds. Generally, teams that lose Game 1 bounce back in Game 2, but that’s not always the case. The adjustments the Suns need to make seem clear — what remains unclear is whether they can make those changes for Game 2. It’s been said that a playoff series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game. The Suns can lose here, win the next two games at home, and even up the series heading into Game 5e. I don’t see any value in betting this game. I’ve been considering the under, but just can’t get there. My model doesn’t show a big edge and if Minnesota can dominate the glass again this game would go over the total. I’ll pass.
Bet
None
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
Current Line – Bucks -1, 223.5
My Projection – Pacers 110, Bucks 109
Key Injuries – Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful.
Game 1 went to the Bucks, who were led by their defensive performance. Milwaukee kept Indiana, the team with the fourth-most fast-break points per game, to only 12 fast-break points. The Bucks allowed the Pacers to make just eight, 21%, of their 38 three-point attempts. The Pacers average 37%-plus from deep for the season. Indiana has won games all year getting easy points by pushing pace and shooting a high volume of threes. Milwaukee had the answers for that in game one with their best player. Tyrese Haliburton shot the ball just seven times in 38 minutes. Indiana needs to adjust their scheme to get Haliburton more scoring opportunities. If they can do that and regress to their average three-point make rate, then things will be much more competitive.
The Pacers are running out of chances to play the Bucks in Milwaukee without Giannis. Antetokounmpo is doubtful, which is actually an upgrade from being out the last few weeks. If the Bucks can win Tuesday and hold serve at home, they might consider resting Giannis in Games 3 and 4 knowing they can lose both and still have homecourt advantage. Game one was a nightmare for the Pacers who closed as 1.5-point favorites. Maybe Milwaukee has all the answers again, but I, like the market, think this matchup will be a tight contest.
Where I disagree with the sportsbook is with the total. Game one closed with a total of 230 points and went under by 27 points. The pace was good at 98, the Pacers shot poorly, and the Bucks shot well. I think the pace will only get slower and even if Indiana shoots much better, Milwaukee is due for a worse shooting performance. The total was adjusted down by almost seven points from game one. I think it’s still too high. I expect there to be fewer than 220 points Tuesday, which is a nice edge against the current total of 223.5. This game could be close late. Sometimes that means more points from fouling late and even overtime, but more often than not, the pace slows to a crawl as teams grind out every possession. I like the under.
Bet
Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks Under 223.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers
Current Line – Clippers -1.5, 217
My Projection – Mavericks 110, Clippers 109
Key Injuries – Kawhi Leonard is questionable.
The Clippers won the first half of Game 1 56-30 over the Mavericks. Los Angeles held the lead through the second half and beat Dallas by 12 without Kawhi Leonard. The Mavericks had one of their worst shooting performances of the season. Dallas had four more possessions and 20 more free throw attempts than Los Angeles in that game and still lost by double digits. The Clippers defended well and attacked the centers for the Mavericks all game. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II combined to play 33 minutes and Dallas lost those minutes by 27 points. To no surprise, Ivica Zubac had the best plus/minus for Los Angeles at +15 points in his 33 minutes. The Mavericks need to figure out how to stop Zubac in the pick and roll and hope their shooting improves quickly if they want to steal a game on the road.
Game 1 betting markets closed with the Mavericks as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 221. The Clippers are favored Tuesday because Kawhi Leonard might play. He has been on the court since March 31 dealing with inflammation in his knee. Kawhi participated in shootaround, and the market seems to think he’s going to play. If Kawhi is playing this spread will move another point or two towards Los Angeles, but the current adjustment from game one is more than likely tied to Kawhi’s status. I make the Mavericks small favorites if Kawhi plays. He’ll be less than 100% and Los Angeles will struggle at first to reintegrate him. The line isn’t bettable for me right now, but if it moves to Mavericks +3 or better, I’ll likely bet on Dallas. Make sure you’re in the Discord to see that bet if/when I make it later.
Bet
None
