Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The PGA Tour travels to New Orleans this week for the playing of the Zurich Classic, the only team event on the regular season schedule. If you’re not familiar with it, the field consists of two-person teams, which the players select themselves, competing in four-ball and foursomes over four rounds. Rounds 1 and 3 will be four-balls, while Rounds 2 and 4 will be foursomes.
If you’re not familiar with those terms, four-balls are sometimes known as “best ball” and foursomes are sometimes referred to as “alternate shot.” In four-balls, each golfer plays his own ball with the team recording the score of whichever teammate has the best score on a particular hole. During foursomes, teams will alternate every other shot taken, starting on the tee box. Prior to the round it is determined which teammate will tee off on odd holes and which will have even holes. Once a tee shot is hit, the other teammate will hit the next shot, so on and so forth until the hole is complete.
Overall, we will want to be trying to determine which teams best complement each other for this format and then hope they play the appropriate holes during alternate shot to best suit their strengths and avoid their weaknesses as much as possible. An example would be if Player A is much better at par 3’s than Player B, then Player A should tee off on the odd-numbered holes because they will have three tee shots on par 3s (see graphic below for hole layouts). That is a basic example, but it is something the teams should be looking at to optimize their chance at success.
When it comes to the four-ball rounds, I believe the main target would simply be birdie or better percentage unless you have the ability to simulate how particular golfers perform on each hole at the course (which you might!). If not, simply looking at teams with high birdie or better percentages could be helpful since these are the rounds where extremely low scores are possible.
I’ve done my best to put together a simple chart detailing where each golfer of a team sits in basic stats (not adjusted for field strength). This is all for naught if the teams do not bother to try and have the appropriate golfers teeing off on the nine holes that best suit them. I looked at golfers scoring on 200–250-yard par 3s, driving distance, long irons, and birdie or better %. I’ll be honest, it’s crude but could be helpful for adjustments to actual talent and expected scores at TPC Louisiana.
At a simple glance I already pointed out that the odd-numbered holes havee three par 3’s and this set of holes also has three relatively short par 4’s. The even set of holes only has one par 3 and also has a mix of par 4’s, but three of them are quite long and would be better suited for a longer driver if possible. There is a solid mix but if a team has a shorter hitter with solid long irons, they seem to be better suited for the odd-numbered holes, while a golfer with more distance and/or poorer long irons. It’s not an exact science but those are simple things on the surface I would be looking at.
Of course, overall talent goes a long way as well, but the team format does allow just about any team to truly be in it because as we know, fractions of strokes separate pro golfers and when you have two pros in four-ball, any team can excel. Normally what separates these golfers the most is consistency and avoiding mistakes, which can be erased by your partner. The alternate shot portion is where a team can truly separate themselves or fall apart, but for the most part holding these rounds together for even par or better will keep teams in the mix.
Zurich Classic Outright Selections
- Tommy Fleetwood and Sergio Garcia 16/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Max Homa and Talor Gooch 28/1 (Caesars)
- Will Zalatoris and Davis Riley 40/1 (BetMGM)
- Maverick McNealy and Joseph Bramlett 90/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This week is about as speculative as I get when it comes to betting outrights, mainly because I don’t have my process setup for team events so I’m speculating more based on educated guesses for alternate shot cohesiveness and underlying talent.
The top of the market starts off with Viktor Hovland/Collin Morikawa for good reason, and although I’m not sure 8/1 is deserved, on paper they make a great fit and the depth of talent for this pair is obvious. I won’t be backing them or any of the other top favorites such as Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele, Marc Leishman/Cam Smith and Sam Burns/Billy Horschel. Instead, I’ll take my first leap at back Sergio Garcia/Tommy Fleetwood at 16/1. If you want to start with some warm feelings on the pair, they have played together before, finishing second in 2019, and did quite well during the alternate shot rounds of the event. It would be nice if they both had higher birdie or better percentages, however both are above 22% and should continue to mesh well in alternate shot. It is a bit of a stretch at the number, I’ll admit, but they do have one of the best combined talent ratings in the field before even getting into any of the team narratives and course fit analysis.
The next pair that stood out to me was Homa and Gooch at 28/1. Again, I’m not making a true number so it can be hard to justify, but for what they bring to the table I think they can win this event. Both are relatively volatile golfers who on their own rate well in this field. Couple that with high birdie rates for both and I’ll take the chance. I assume they’ll have Gooch teeing off on the odd number holes with his profile on par 3’s and longer approach but they are similar. This however would allow Homa to be driving on the longer par 4’s which I think would be an advantage. They finished T17 in 2021, holding it together just fine in alternate shot but only shot 66/67 in their four-ball rounds. They will have to shave a few off in that format to have a chance to win but they are quite capable.
We’ve reached the portion of the show now where the number might be more justified, and I’ll be backing Zalatoris and Riley 40/1 with the rest of the golf betting world on twitter. Before looking I would have guessed both would have had higher birdie rates than they actually do, which is a bit of a downer, however both are above 24% for the 2022 season which is one of the higher combined totals for teams in this event. It will be interesting to see how they split the alternate shot but with Zalatoris being the better iron player I assume he will get the odd holes with the par 3’s and that would also give him the longer approaches on the even holes; it’s wonderful on the spreadsheet to speculate.
If you couldn’t tell yet, my formula for this week has been rather simple. But for my last selection, I am chasing volatility (which often comes in the form of bad rounds) and I’ll be backing McNealy and Bramlett 90/1. While Bramlett doesn’t have a high birdie rate, McNealy does, but the upside with Bramlett will be his driving. Of all the teams in the field, over the last two years, Bramlett and McNealy have the highest combined upside drives (90th percentile strokes gained on drive), which is part of the case for the four-balls (thank you Sky Hoke for the stat). They will need to capitalize on these drives, but the beauty of the four-ball is that it can erase some of the inconsistency these golfers lack if they can ham-and-egg with their partner. It’s a thin argument, but the upside is present with this pair and I think the 90/1 might end up being the best number of the four teams I bet this week.
It’s a light week overall for my PGA betting, but be sure to check my bet tracker for DP World Tour and LPGA Tour bets with both of those tours in action this week. You can find the track at the Bet Tracker. You can use code AXIS for 20% and along with the picks gain access to the subscriber-only Discord – I hope to chat with you soon.
