Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Once per year, the golf world bestows upon us the best week of golf betting: The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. The event has been played in Austin, Texas, since 2016 at Austin Country Club. The course is a short par 71, stretching only 7,073 yards, and plays even shorter when adjusted for length of each hole to average.
A brief rundown of how this tournament works if you’re not familiar: The top 64 golfers per the OWGR are invited. The first round is comprised of a pod system, with a total of 16 pods with four golfers in each. There is a round robin among these four, with the winner moving on to the bracket-style knockout tournament.
Eventually, the field is whittled down to a final four, which takes place Sunday. There will be a finale and a third-/fourth-place match contested on the final day. It can make for dry viewing, but leading into Saturday there is often great drama.
As somebody who prefers to focus on matchups and prop bets, this week is a gold mine due to the event’s setup. There will be plenty of head-to-heads to look over leading into Sunday, as well as group winners, region winners and the like.
Match play is the great equalizer in golf. The most talented golfers in the world are consistently great, but even in the 50th-best golfer in the world can shoot the same score as Jon Rahm, they just don’t do it as often. Mix in the course and it makes for a wonderful environment for upsets and surprise results. In general, higher seeds had often prevailed, especially making the final, however the last three winners have all been seeded 32nd or higher, and the lowest-seeded finalist was ranked 23rd during that same time span. Although perhaps not expected, this field is comprised of mostly the best golfers in the world and there is only a handful of golfers I would consider “shocking” if they won.
Outright Selections
- Daniel Berger 29/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Tom Hoge 100/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This week is often more about the pod winners and matchups, but that won’t stop me from selecting a few potential winners before the madness starts Wednesday. A majority of the best golfers in the world are here, which can make selecting difficult and even more so with match play and pods at the forefront of this event. It’s hard to ignore what Justin Thomas has done of late, but I’m not ready to back 16/1, and I have the same sentiment toward Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler and slightly higher odds, but not enough to bite.
The first golfer who caught my eye and didn’t match my number was Daniel Berger at 29/1. His history at this event is mundane although his most recent trip in 2021 ended with his best result (T18) despite not getting out of his pod, losing in a sudden death playoff to Erik Van Rooyen (he had beat EVR 6 and 4 earlier in the week). Many will point to head-to-head records and while I don’t like to use that as a leading contributor or indication of success, I tend to think it’s more noise than signal, and prefer to lean on current skill rating and fit. Berger continues to play at the highest level in his career, and outside of the injury-riddled weeks of the Farmers and WMPO, he continues to shine. He has a winnable pod, in which I rate him the best golfer (Tyrrell Hatton, Si Woo Kim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout) at a course that should suit him well. It’s not difficult, but full of risk/reward offerings and the fact that Berger gains strokes across all four categories may be key. I mention this often but when you’re able to achieve this, a golfer can make up for any part of the game that is off. From birdies to bogey avoidance, a strong all-around game is what I like to back in this situation and Berger has it all.
I skipped the middle of the board, despite tempting names with form such as Kevin Kisner, Paul Casey and Alex Noren. The latter was tempting, but I was hoping to catch a larger number and with how well he’s been playing and his history here, it makes it difficult to back Noren at the market number. Instead, I will be going back to another golfer I’ve tipped a handful of times early this year, Tom Hoge at 100/1.
It’s unfortunate Hoge would run into Berger in their region final, but I fired on the 100/1 at open and before the bracket was set, but Hoge has slipped to 80 in many spots so at least we can hang that closing line value on the mantle next to all of our other dust. Hoge has been playing his best golf to start 2022, including his first victory on tour at Pebble Beach. I backed him at The Players and now we’re onto another course that should suit what he does best. Austin CC is quite short and although distance will give an edge on certain holes, this is the case at every course, but the advantage is dampened at a larger level this week. His driving has improved this year making him less of a one-trick pony, but we saw at The Players that his putting can be a liability, even when his irons are putting him close. That said, his approach has been A+ and that if that persists, that will continue to put pressure on his opponent before he even has to hit the putt. Hoge is 14th on Tour in bogey avoidance, which is a bit of an all-encompassing stat since many things could factor into why a golfer makes a bogey, but overall, I do think it sheds light on those who avoid huge mistakes on the regular. If Hoge can capitalize on his iron play he could surprise and excel at this course.
For all of my picks this week, including pod winners, matchups, and more, check out the Bet Tracker. If you’re not yet a premium subscriber, use code AXIS for a 20% discount for all of my picks, content and access to the premium Discord. Hope to chat with you soon and good luck this week.
