Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Golf’s second major of the year, the U.S. Open, is taking place this weekend in Brookline, Mass., at The Country Club. The USGA is in charge of running the U.S. Open, and typically they have gone about setting up their courses to “protect par.” In the past, this has meant long and thick rough combined with dried-out greens – sometimes to the point of major complaints due to getting extreme. I would expect this week to be similar with slick greens and thick rough.
It’s normally not a secret what golfers will be facing in a U.S. Open. The Country Club’s best defenses appear to be small, undulating (drink!) greens, which will put immense pressure on approach shots.
The Country Club Profile
Par 70
7,254 yards
Greens – Poa Annua
Architect – most recent renovations by Gil Hanse
Every year as the U.S. Open rolls around and media begins to arrive, videos surface of people dropping golf balls in the rough and we watch them disappear. These are followed by comments about how important it will be to hit the fairway and the distance advantage may not be the same if they can’t keep it in the fairway. The recent winners of the U.S. Open would beg to differ with this. Now, there are many reasons long hitters have won U.S. Open, and there is a large correlation to the best golfers in the world also being some of the longest off the tee. However, thick rough is not a real answer to punishing missing fairways. It’s not like shorter hitters never miss fairways and now they’re even further back with longer irons, approaching small and firm greens – good luck.
Meanwhile, the distance golfers who miss fairways at least still have a chance to muscle out a shorter iron into the greens. It’s not a direct correlation to distance away and penalty of rough but it escalates quickly the further back a golfer is. So yes, a golfer is going to want to be playing from the fairways as much as possible, that is true of most events, but I would contend when the rough gets thick, it’s not correcting the problem many think it is. When you layer the true length of the course on top of this, it appears to me distance will be an advantage this week and something I will be targeting. The par 3s are not long, including the extremely short No. 11 at 131 yards. Hole No. 5 is a short par 4, 310 yards, which means a majority of the length of this course is on the remaining par 4’s, with eight of them playing over 450 yards when tipped out.
So, while distance appears to be a large advantage, there is a reason we don’t often see surprise winners at majors – talent rules. The harder and more demanding a course, the larger it separates the weak from the strong. When you factor in distance, it chops it down even more. Challenging courses are not often one dimensional; they test all skills tee to green and I expect no different at The Country Club.
U.S. Open Outright Selections
- Jordan Spieth 28/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Hideki Matsuyama 41/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Cam Young 50/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Aaron Wise 80/1 Each-Way (BetRivers)
- Adri Arnaus 250/1 Each-way (BetRivers)
- Sam Horsfield 250/1 Each-way (BetRivers)
Jordan Spieth 28/1
Even on a baseline number, I believe Spieth at 28/1 is good value and while it may not seem on paper to be a great setup, I would disagree. Spieth’s driving, particularly his distance, is enough for what will be required and obviously the rest of his tee to green game is top notch. His putting isn’t as consistent as it used to be, and he’s been struggling this year but he’s more than capable on the greens. It’s not like we’re asking him to do something he does once a year when hoping for a solid weekend on the greens. When courses are difficult, they begin to separate the talent because the full game is tested, and Spieth has the skills in the four strokes gained categories. As long as his wild drives are limited, he will stand a solid chance this week at The Country Club.
Hideki Matsuyama 41/1
Matsuyama hasn’t finished inside the top 15 in a U.S. Open since 2017, but he has made five straight cuts in the event. With his skill set I would probably have expected more top 10s, but his overall results seem to suggest he can handle the conditions the USGA presents. We haven’t seen him play since the PGA Championship and he’s had a rather light schedule due to injury so I can’t speak to his immediate form, but the ball striking hasn’t been an issue all year. His play suggests you should expect the usual Matsuyama; great ball striking, suspect putting. I believe he’s one of the best in the field but perhaps his absence from playing is why he settled around 40, with the market placing those with more recent results ahead of him but I think he should be closer to 28/1.
Cam Young 50/1
Another tournament, another bet on Cam Young. He still doesn’t carry enough name recognition to squeeze into the 30/1 range despite his excellent play this year. It’s the first year we have strokes gained stats for Young, but he has proven to be one of the best drivers in the world. He is exceptionally long and quite accurate which is a wonderful weapon, especially at a USGA setup. He was not known for his iron play on the KFT Tour, however it has improved dramatically during his rookie season and he’s a solid putter. His around the green game can be a concern, which we saw Sunday at the PGA Championship but if a golfer has a weakness, it’s best to be ARG than any other area. It may hurt him a bit this week but overall, his play warrants a better number than 50.
Aaron Wise 80/1 Each-Way, 1/5 odds, 7 places
Hard to imagine Aaron Wise as a major champion, but what was also attractive were the places on the each-way. I think there is value on the 80 as well and his distance should be helpful this week. He’s coming into the event in solid form having made five straight cuts, including a second his last time out at the Memorial. He still lacks a bit of consistency but 2022 has been his best year as a pro and he’s proven he can gain strokes in all four categories he just hasn’t done it much all on the same weekend. He’s been positive in all the categories this year, so he has the skills needed to win. It would be quite the leap in this field but I made him closer to 60/1 and the extra places at 16/1 are a wonderful value as well.
Adri Arnaus and Sam Horsefield – 250/1 Each-way, 1/5 odds, 7 places
I’ve grouped Arnaus and Horsfield together due to them being the same odds, and I’m backing them mainly for the 50/1 on the 7 places being offered. Horsfield is the better of the two golfers and has more value on his outright, but I would be willing to bet just the outright as well (which you can find better numbers on than 250). Distance will help Arnaus but overall, his ball-striking isn’t the best, but he can putt well enough to perhaps make things interesting on the places.
Horsfield’s accuracy could cause him problems but if he can keep it under control a bit, the rest of his game is good enough to work his way up the leaderboard. He’s been through U.S. Opens before, although he’s yet to make a cut. He hasn’t played many events in 2022 but when he has the results have been solid, including a victory just a month ago in Belgium. I have higher expectation for Horsfield than Arnaus but couldn’t pass on either number.
For all of my picks for this week’s U.S. Open, including props and positional wagers, check out the FTN Bet Tracker. If you’re not a subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% off.
