NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The PGA Tour will stay in America’s Southeast, as the field congregates in Hilton Head, SC, for the RBC Heritage. The tour’s Masters comedown will be played at Harbour Town Golf Links; a classical Pete Dye design on the Atlantic boasting tight, tree-lined fairways, with scattered water and bunkers throughout.
As far as the PGA Tour goes, Harbour is one of the shortest in total yardage that regularly hosts events, coming in at 7,121 yards (par 71). Don’t be fooled though, despite the short length, players will face many mid-iron shots and less wedges than a typical length. This is due to less than average length par 3’s and a handful of short par 4’s, leaving much of the length creating quite long par 4’s and 5’s.
Harbour Town Golf Links (last four years for data)
- 7,121 Yards
- Par 71
- Designer | Pete Dye
- Driving Distance (all P4/5) | 274 yards
- Driving Accuracy | 62%
- Greens in Regulation | 60%
Scoring conditions have varied greatly over the years at this tournament and is heavily dependent on how much the weather is a factor. Dating back to 2000, we have seen the winner reach -22 (Webb Simpson, played in the summer) and as high as -7 (2005). There are plenty of opportunities to make birdies, but trouble is lurking not far off the fairways, and wild drives will be penalized. Due to the nature and shape of the course, drivers are taken out of hand on a large portion of the course, and when coupled with how tight the course is in general, driving distance is not a key to victory at Harbour Town and will be less of an advantage than a usual week. Gaining strokes off the tee still has correlated with total strokes gained. However, those gains will largely be made by hitting fairways and staying out of trouble instead of through distance, which is what normally makes up a bulk of gains OTT.
The rough itself isn’t overly penal, with only an 11% GIR difference compared to the fairway, and a 0.09 stroke penalty relative to par. The issue is when a golfer strays beyond the rough; the GIR difference from those areas jumps to 24%, and the stroke penalty to par is 0.45 (par 4/5s).
To wrap it all up, the premium is more on accuracy than distance off the tee this week, and from there the course will not be overly difficult. There isn’t a large emphasis on or around the green, so the key will be getting approach shots close enough to make the birdie opportunities. If the wind picks up, there will be a stronger emphasis on iron play and an uptick around the green since there will be more greens missed (although still not overly difficult scrambles).
RBC Heritage outright selections
- Cameron Smith 16/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tommy Fleetwood 55/1 (DraftKings)
- Adam Hadwin 65/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Matthew NeSmith 250/1 (DraftKings)
Depending on where you look, the market leaders vary, but they consistently start with Justin Thomas (9/1) followed by Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Cameron Smith. While an argument can be made every week for the favorites to end up the winner (duh), I am intrigued once again by Cam Smith (16/1). I’ve backed Smith a handful of times this year, catching both wins, and while I wasn’t on him last week at a similar number, I must this week.
You can list the many reasons you feel he won’t win, whether it’s the “grind” of the The Masters or a letdown having been in the final pairing and being defeated, and other narratives. I would first remind you that many recent winners have done so having come from Augusta, and secondly, I have a hard time spinning letdown spots and can’t let that stop me from backing a valuable number. Honestly, my biggest concern is the big left miss off the tee we have seen from Smith at The Players and plenty at The Masters. While I hope clubbing down on many holes this week will help prevent it, the big miss lingers in my mind because those shots will be quite a bit more penal (relative to par) this week, and some perhaps won’t even be found. That said, I rate him as currently the best golfer in this field, and his skill set is more than enough to overcome driving woes if he’s in play. His approach play continues to be top notch, and it’s backed by one of the best short games in the world. It’s not a perfect comparison, but Smith’s first solo win on the PGA Tour took place at Waialae CC, which is another course that tones down the driver and puts more emphasis on irons. He has a solid history at this event, but this may be the first time playing it while his approach play is at a high point of his career. 16/1 is a gift, and I feel the market is not respecting his efforts over the past 12 months.
There is a lot of win equity at the top of the market for this event, and not much of the middle of the board attracts me. Sure, there are plenty of cases to be built, and I see potential winners, but I cannot get to the number. Shane Lowry and Matthew Fitzpatrick fit what I’d ideally be looking for, but at 18 to 22/1 for both, I was looking for 32. It’s not a wild difference, but I would rather lay off and see how things play out because there has been value available in the live markets. Instead, I decided to take my speculation a bit deeper and select Tommy Fleetwood 55/1. It feels it’s been a long while since Fleetwood has strung together consistent play, but he has made five straight cuts on the back of strong ball striking, and he arrives at Harbour Town where he’s played quite well OTT in his two trips. However, he’s been held back by a lack of anything else those weeks. This isn’t the same value I see in Smith, and I took a number slightly lower than I was hoping to see, but it seems to fit despite Fleetwood not having a real winning chance in some time. Forever a middling talent, his best golf comes in Europe, and he seems out of sorts most of the time Stateside. This is a tough field, but it’s not a major, the course isn’t built for runaway victories and should suit his game if the improvements continue. I admit it’s a small reach, but I’m quite off the market most everywhere else this week and like the fact Fleetwood has shown his ability to gain strokes OTT at courses that force more clubbing down.
Similar to Fleetwood, but in better form, is Adam Hadwin 65/1. I can only assume he’s at 65 due to his course history here and having never finished better than 22nd. I say that because he is coming into this event with impeccable form, which normally torpedoes value, but I’m happy to see him at a number I am willing to back. That form is three-straight T10’s, 5-of-6 cuts made, with his worst finish (outside the MC) being T26 at the WMPO. His ball striking has been magnificent, carried by his iron play which will be more important that the driving this week. He’s already an accurate driver, so I don’t worry about him too much at Harbour Town, and he’s never averaged worse than -0.21 per round in any of his times playing the RBC Heritage. He has gotten himself in some trouble around the greens and on them, which is normally a solid attribute of his. It’s hard to pinpoint why he struggles here, but I’m willing to risk that much more than his iron play being lackadaisical. Sometimes the course fit and form do not pan out, but we also know a sample of six golf events can be full of variance. Lack of distance is currently his biggest deficiency each week which will be nullified, he plays from the fairway and his form from approach to green is as good as it’s ever been for him; it all lines up (for a missed cut, right?).
I am ending my outright selections this week with Matthew NeSmith 250/1. Did I make this wager because NeSmith proposed to his wife here? No. Am I making this wager because he’s from the area? No. I’m certain those things make him more comfortable at this tournament, which is good, but to account for those narratives in a number is beyond me (and probably you), not to mention he’s only finished 33rd and 48th in his two attempts here. Perhaps he needs a bit more than good feelings to get over the top. He’s a bit of a one-trick pony, relying heavily on his approach play for success, but his driving has been much improved in 2022, and that is a skill we see golfers retain on a more consistent basis. Much of that improvement is due to accuracy, which is fine this week, and he will need to not be a disaster on and around the green to have any chance. He has hit his irons quite well at Harbour Town, but lackluster putting has not allowed him to take advantage of the looks his irons were giving him on the green. He has shown the ability to gain a lot of strokes on the green at times, and at 250/1, we will need that magic since he’s not likely to make up for it elsewhere. Perhaps it’s paired with a Top 20 or 40 when the markets are released, depending on the number, but I feel we should see some value in those markets as well.
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