Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
After two years off due to the pandemic, the PGA Tour is finally returning to Canada for this week’s RBC Canadian Open, which will be played at St. George’s Golf & Country Club for the first time since 2010. Carl Pettersson was the winner of that event, and the OWGR No. 1 golfer in the world was Lee Westwood (who is busy this week playing in the LIV Golf event).
If you reference the 2010 leaderboard you will recognize many names, and you will also notice the course will be playing roughly the same yardage. We do not have strokes gained stats from that event; however, I did pull the basic stats that were recorded which you can see below.
St. George’s Golf and Country Club Course Information
Par 70
7,014 Yards
Driving Distance | 291 yards
Driving Accuracy | 63%
Greens in Regulation | 66.8%
Architect: Stanley Johnson
It’s not much to go off of, but there are some assumptions I will make having seen the scorecard and basic stats. In general, short courses do not reward distance nearly as much as longer courses, which reduces the advantage of a large number of the best golfers in the world and will put slightly more emphasis on finding fairways.
With good drives (and perhaps even offline) all three of the par 5’s appear to be reachable in two by the entire field, again negating some of the usual advantage we would see from driving distance. There are also five par 3’s, taking away a driving hole we would likely see on an average course with only four par 3’s. There are four fairly long par 4’s where much of the distance of the course is used and will most likely be the most difficult on the weekend.
Overall, this is a lot of speculation, but I would lean to knocking the distance advantage and a bump to those who gain more strokes through being accurate. Of course, iron play will be key like every week but it’s hard to say much about how much of a factor the short game may be and we will learn more after the first couple rounds.
RBC Canadian Open Outright Selections
- Cam Smith 15/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Aaron Rai 140/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Matt Wallace 400/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
A bit of a light week that hopefully will provide some live spots because the opening odds weren’t offering up too much for me. I started my card, once again, with Cam Smith (15/1). He is probably close to the most-bet golfer for me this year, as I continue to be more bullish on him than the market, or at least than FanDuel. He’s closer to 10/1 at most other books but the 15 was a must. He continues to shine and even on so-so weeks he’s managing to position himself near the top of the leaderboard. His driving continues to be a sore spot and I imagine that is largely why the market has him where he is, but I think his short game goes overlooked week in, week out. Yes, everybody is aware of how great he is on and around the green but (for good reason) most models place such a heavy emphasis on approach and driving, which knocks Smith down. Of course, it is a concern, however, playing a shorter course such as St. George’s will take the driver out of hand a bit, plus as I pointed out, there is an extra par 3 which could be beneficial. The longer par 4’s will require precision with irons and although the emphasis on short game remains a mystery, it won’t hurt being one of the best in the world.
I’ve skipped a large portion of the board (simply due to numbers, not ability to actually win) and arrived at Aaron Rai (140/1) as my next selection. I don’t think this is a large edge but if my guesses on how the course will play are correct, I think it sets up nicely for Rai. Not a prolific winner, but multiple time champion on the DP World Tour, he has been playing full time on the PGA this year with success. Sure, he hasn’t exactly flirted with victory but he’s been steady with consistently solid finishes built up by his accuracy and iron play. Rai was often a target on tight tracks when playing on the DP World Tour and since I’m going with accuracy this week, adjustments were made, and Rai came into play. He’s not a great putter, but habitually has good outings on the greens and it’s his short game and lack of distance that hurts him the most.
Last, I dipped into a range I rarely bet to grab Matt Wallace (400/1). There aren’t often many great things to point at for golfers in this range, but I have him lower and jumped at the number. Perhaps his career bests were years ago, and he’s a long way from that, but he had two solid events in Europe finishing 18th last week in Germany and fifth in the Netherlands. Sure, those fields are not PGA caliber but perhaps they are good for his mental strength and as bad as the rest of his game has been, his approach play has continued to shine. He’s been awful with the driver which will have to change to contend (or even make a cut) but as I mentioned his approach play has been good and we even saw an uptick in his short game (although noisy). At 400/1, we don’t have high expectations but I can’t pass on a number that I disagree with, especially with a bit of form, however unlikely the outcome.
