Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
After an absolutely thrilling 150th Open Championship, the PGA Tour returns to Minnesota for the 3M Open, hosted at TPC Twin Cities. This will be the fourth year for this tournament, with the previous winners being Cam Champ, Michael Thompson and Matthew Wolff.
The course was torn apart the first two years with winning scores of -21 and -19, while last year’s champion, Champ, only reached -15. If -20 is reached again, you can be assured it will not be in the same way we just witnessed at the Old Course. We are back to receptive, dart-board golf, and precision irons will be key.
Course Stats – TPC Twin Cities
- Par 71 – 7,431 yards
- Driving Distance – 290 yards
- Driving Accuracy – 63.7%
- Greens in Regulation – 72.8%
- Bentgrass Greens
Key Takeaways
- TPC Twin Cities has a high penalty rate with water being in play on 14-of-18 holes
- Distance will play a factor with the long course. However, it’s important to find fairways and avoid the hazards and rough. Similar to TPC Deere Run, golfers will give up too many chances at targeting pins playing from the rough.
- While the rough isn’t particularly penal, as mentioned above, the fairways are very easy to take dead aim from, and players will lose much better birdie opportunities playing from the rough, considering the 82% GIR rate from the fairway.
- In three years, putting has not proven to be difficult, leading to more of an advantage to ball-strikers who may typically struggle on the greens.
- There has been clubbing down due to the fear of narrow landing and water hazards, which can lead the course to playing longer for some golfers.
- Overall, emphasis on gaining OTT this week – I would like to avoid golfers who struggle driving the golf ball consistently. Whether through distance or accuracy, it needs to start at the tee this week.
3M Open Outright Selections
- Davis Riley 25/1 – BetMGM
- Sahith Theegala 28/1 – BetRivers
- Tyler Duncan 130/1 – DraftKings
There are only a handful of golfers in this field who can say they’re gaining positive strokes in all four categories over their last 50 rounds, and Davis Riley (25/1) is one of them. He makes most of his gains OTT, through above-average distance and accuracy – a rare combination in today’s game. While his approach game has been inconsistent during the year, the last six events he’s been quite good in this department, so I’m hoping some of that work continues to carry over. He’s most deficient, albeit not bad, with his short game, and from what I’ve seen over the first three years at TPC Twin Cities, I don’t think it will matter as much. The course plays into his strengths more, and the field lacks depth of stars, making this a wonderful opportunity for him to snag a PGA Tour victory. The 25/1 is borderline for his baseline, but the advantages of this course put him over the top for me, more than the other tournament favorites. While they all should feel good here, their numbers weren’t as good as Riley’s. I know it seems odd at times to back golfers such as Riley at these numbers, but you have to remember it’s all relative to the course and field they are playing on any given week. Somebody has to win, and Riley stands a good chance to do so.
Sahith Theegala (28/1) is probably my favorite bet of the three this week. He has steadily gained OTT all year, and quite frankly has been quite consistent tee to green. At times, he’s struggled with his approach play, but that is part of the learning curve I’d imagine. He has had plenty of tournaments this season in which he’s gained over a stroke per round with his irons, so it’s not that he’s incapable, he just lacks consistency at times, which is common in younger players. He’s made a charge multiple times this year, most recently losing the Travelers Championship on the final hole, but he bounced back nicely at the John Deere and Open Championship. He’s played a lot of golf recently, but it’s hard for me to speculate how much gas he has left in the tank, so I hope he still has the energy to keep pushing. It’s a narrative to think about but hard for me to quantify on a golfer without a huge collection of PGA experience. He sets up well, and I think he should be higher on the list of favorites for the week.
As of writing this, Tyler Duncan (130/1) has already moved down to 100/1 at DraftKings, and I made him 92/1. Unlike Theegala or Riley, Duncan will be gaining his strokes OTT through the number of fairways he hits – and he’s going to have to hit above field average to take advantage this week. His approach play has been steady in recent weeks, and he’s coming off a T13 at the Barbasol, which followed a WD from the John Deere, so I think everything is good to go with him. I don’t expect fireworks, but the number was simply too high for this field. While he is a PGA Tour winner (RSM 2020), it’s been a bit of a struggle since, not even posting a single T20 in 2021. His irons have improved this year, however, and he’s had five T20’s so far in 2022. Although he hasn’t managed to find a T10, TPC Twin Cities could be the place to do it. His short game is not good, and this is a course where that could be negated a bit, letting him do most of his gaining through driving and approach play.
For all of my bets this week across the PGA Tour, DP World Tour and LPGA Tour check out the FTN Bet Tracker (see photo below for this year’s record)! If you’re not a subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% off at checkout!
