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PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2025 Mexico Open

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Well, friends, we’ve made it to the part of the PGA schedule where we went completely nuclear a season ago. This week was the first of many takedowns. We of course can’t expect a takedown as a repeat performance, but I do think this is another week with a substantial edge based on an extreme course fit model.

Course Fit: The 2025 Mexico Open

Bombers rejoice once again this week, with a distance emphasis over 100% higher than usual. The 20% boost on iron play, 40% boost on putting and -75% boost on around-the-green play are also significant. Reminder for how to interpret these numbers:

We’re currently projecting Kurt Kitayama to gain 0.25 strokes per round with his distance. Since distance has a 133% boost this week, that translates into a 0.25 * 2.33 = 0.58 expected strokes gained advantage over the field. So yeah, 133% is a huge boost and the others are still large.

Plus, there’s one more element of course fit that I’ll be looking at considerably this week, but I’ll save that for the first Hot Take. It’s a biggie!

Hot Takes for the 2025 Mexico Open

1. Long irons are king here

This is an astonishing amount of long iron shots:

This is one of the few courses where players won’t just be hoping to make par when they have these clubs in hand — they need to view these shots as scoring opportunities. Jake Knapp must have made five birdies in the opening round last year from outside of 175 yards. I’m willing to play a slightly negative GPP Score if he is a great long iron player, and I will fade good GPP Scores if their long iron play leaves a lot to be desired. I’ll mention a few guys in the remaining Hot Takes, but you can find this data for everyone here.

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