Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy 10-game DFS slate in the NHL Thursday with the Flyers, Jets and Oilers are all playing the second leg of a back-to-back set. Boston, Tampa Bay Florida, Carolina and Dallas are the largest favorites on the docket with the Islanders, Avalanche and Penguins also all receiving notable chalk.
The highest over/under total is in the Winnipeg-Edmonton tilt, and with two backups likely to start in net, there’s ample reason to look closely at the North Division matchup.
Here’s a quick-hit primer to help your DFS lineup assembly.
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Pittsburgh Penguins (-155) at New Jersey Devils
The Penguins had a six-game winning streak snapped last time out, whereas New Jersey won Tuesday to improve to a dismal 3-10-2 over its past 15 contests. With Pittsburgh a significant favorite in this matchup, expect a return to fortunes for both teams and an opportunity for strong showings from Pittsburgh’s top players. It’s important to note the Devils have surrendered a healthy 3.12 goals per game this season and have the third worst penalty-kill percentage in the league. It will be important to check Evgeni Malkin’s (lower body) status after he left Tuesday’s game in the first period.
With that in mind, Pittsburgh’s No. 1 line of Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel has clucked for 5.05 goals and 16.35 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes over the past two years. Additionally, top defenseman Kris Letang has been excellent through his past 14 games with five tallies, eight helpers, 38 shots and 19 blocks while logging a hefty 24:34 of ice time per game (3:22 on the power play).
Boston Bruins (-265) at Buffalo Sabres
Another notable mismatch, Boston is a large favorite despite entering with a mediocre active 5-7-2 record and a depleted blueline. Top-four defensemen Brandon Carlo (upper body) and Jeremy Lauzon (hand) are both expected to miss Thursday’s game, and No. 1 netminder Tuukka Rask (undisclosed) should probably be considered questionable at best after missing the past five outings. Still, there’s little concern about the Sabres statistically. Buffalo has scored the fewest five-on-five goals per hour in the league and allowed the fourth most. Plus, No. 1 center Jack Eichel (neck) is out indefinitely.
It sets up as an excellent matchup for Boston’s go-to line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. The trio has scored 6.12 goals and generated 15.72 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes over the past three years. Additionally, it’s been Matt Grzelcyk quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit of late, and the 27-year-old defenseman has collected a respectable five points — four with the man advantage — through the past seven games. Boston’s starting goaltender is also definitely in play given Buffalo’s offensive woes.
Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders (-165)
The Flyers took it on the chin Wednesday night with a 9-0 loss to the Rangers and now face the first-place Islanders. The Isles are also coming off their first regulation loss in 13 games and are rolling along an impressive 16-3-2 active stretch. Additionally, New York continues to be one of the best five-on-five teams in the league with the most high-danger scoring chances generated and third fewest goals allowed per 60 minutes. Philadelphia defensive lapses have been present all season, as the Flyers have surrendered the second most five-on-five goals per hour and sport a 25th-ranked 74.1 penalty-kill percentage.
It’s worth noting with Andres Lee (knee) out of the lineup, it’s been Kieffer Bellows climbing into a top offensive role, and the 22-year-old winger has three goals through his past three games. Additionally, New York No. 1 Semyon Varlamov could be positioned for a bounceback showing and boasts an elite .926 save percentage and 2.08 GAA for the campaign, and backup Ilya Sorokin has also won six straight with .934 and 1.48 marks. It will be interesting to see who Philadelphia turns to in goal Thursday. Both Carter Hart and Brian Elliott were roughed up in Wednesday’s beatdown. Additionally, while it would be surprising if the Flyers didn’t have a better showing Thursday, it’s also a horrible matchup, as noted.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes (-190)
Columbus cannot gain any traction this season. The Blue Jackets enter Thursday’s tilt with an active 4-7-4 record but are somehow still just four points out of a playoff berth. Carolina sits in third place in the division, but is also just a single point out of first place. The Hurricanes also boast a 10-1-1 home-ice record, whereas Columbus is 4-7-2 on the road this year. Carolina has also been far superior at five-on-five with a third-ranked Corsi For percentage and the fifth-fewest goals against per 60 minutes. The Blue Jackets rank last and seventh worst, respectively.
However, injuries are piling up for Carolina with Vincent Trocheck (upper body), Teuvo Teravainen (upper body), Jake Gardiner (back) and Warren Foegele (upper body) all either already out or questionable for Thursday’s game. The absences have forced the Hurricanes to load up two scoring lines, though. Sebastian Aho is centering Nino Niederreiter and Martin Necas, and Jordan Staal has Andrei Svechnikov and Jesper Fast on his flanks. Columbus’ No. 1 line of Jack Roslovic, Cam Atkinson and Max Domi looks intriguing on paper, and they’ve combined for three goals and eight assists over the past three games — albeit not always as linemates.
Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning (-240)
The Blackhawks enter this daunting road matchup with an active 2-4-1 record with 30 goals allowed, including 24 through the past five games. They’ve now surrendered the ninth most goals per game in the league and sport a 27th-ranked 73.1 penalty-kill percentage. Additionally, netminder Kevin Lankinen’s .895 save percentage and 3.71 GAA through his past eight starts further suggest the wheels might finally be falling off for the Blackhawks. Just don’t tell Patrick Kane, as he continues to score in bunches and is up to 12 goals, 30 assists and 14 power-play points for the campaign.
After a stretch of playing with multiple regulars injured, the Lightning are healthy again and cruising along a 10-2-1 stretch. Tampa Bay has Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat and Anthony Cirelli clicking at 4.01 goals per 60 minutes this season, whereas the Yanni Gourde–Steven Stamkos–Alex Killorn trio has struggled with just 2.86 goals per 60 minutes and a 7.55 shooting percentage at five-on-five. There could be some positive regression ahead for Gourde, Stamkos and Killorn. It’s definitely important to note how much offense Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev bring to the table, as they’ve picked up 27 and 19 points, respectively.
Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers (-205)
With Roman Josi (upper body), Ryan Ellis (upper body), Matt Duchene (lower body) and Luke Kunin (lower body) all out of the lineup, the Predators are treading water and enter Thursday’s game with an active 2-5-1 record while allowing 33 total goals. Additionally, Nashville has struggled on the road all season with a 5-9-1 record, whereas Florida is 9-3-3 on home ice and has won four straight games. With Sergei Bobrovsky also rounding into form with a 7-1-1 record, .919 save percentage and 2.65 GAA through his past nine starts, he projects to be a solid option in net for DFS purposes. After all, Florida also allows the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league.
Offensively for the Panthers, everything continues to run through Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Keith Yandle. Huberdeau ranks fourth in points per 60 minutes, Barkov ranks 18th and Yandle 10th among regular defensemen. Barkov has also racked up an impressive four goals and nine assists through eight March games, and his winger Carter Verhaeghe has a four-game point streak consisting of three goals and three assists. Look for Florida’s No. 1 power-play unit to have solid opportunities with Nashville ranking last in the league in penalty-kill percentage.
Dallas Stars (-190) at Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings are 2-1-1 since captain Dylan Larkin returned to the lineup, and he’s collected two goals, two assists and 16 shots. The form is all the more impressive considering the four games were split between the Lightning and Hurricanes. Still, Detroit has the worst goal differential in the Central Division and the second-worst penalty-kill percentage in the league, so the Red Wings are far from an intimidating opponent. They’ve also scored the third-fewest goals per game in the league.
With Dallas allowing the fourth-fewest goals and second-fewest high-danger scoring chances per hour in the league, this sets up as a favorable matchup for Jake Oettinger’s ongoing bid to take over the Dallas crease. The 21-year-old rookie has a rock-solid .917 save percentage and 2.16 GAA for the campaign and has only lost once in regulation through 14 appearances (11 starts). Offensively, Alexander Radulov has a goal and 10 shots through two games since returning from injury, and he provides a notable boost for the Stars. If Roope Hintz (lower body) is able to suit up, the Stars would be a nearly full strength. It’s also worth highlighting Jason Robertson’s high-end 3.26 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five — it ranks seventh among all NHL forwards with at least 150 minutes played.
Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers (-143)
The winner of this game will tie Toronto for first place in the North Division, so even in mid-March, there’s oodles on the line for both clubs. They’re also both in excellent form and have split the season series 2-2 thus far. Winnipeg enters on a 9-3-1 stretch, and Edmonton has an active 16-7 record. Both teams score in bunches with the Oilers fourth in goals per game and Winnipeg ranking sixth. Additionally, both teams are generally healthy and will likely be starting their backup netminders after Connor Hellebuyck and Mike Smith started for their respective clubs Wednesday.
The Oilers split up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl half way through Edmonton’s 4-3 loss to Calgary on Monday, and then they remained separated for Wednesday’s commanding 7-3 win, so expect them to remain on different lines at five-on-five again Thursday. Winnipeg’s forward corps remains intact, as the Jets have settled into a nice four-line attack with Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Paul Stastny atop the depth chart. The more intriguing offensive line could be the Pierre-Luc Dubois–Kyle Connor–Nikolaj Ehlers trio, though. Returning to the Oilers, McDavid is centering Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi again, and Kailer Yamamoto and Dominik Kahun are flanking Draisaitl. Finally, it’s definitely worth noting that defenders Tyson Barrie and Neal Pionk respectively rank third and eighth among all regular defenders in points per 60 minutes.
Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche (-157)
One of the most bizarre — and probably unsustainable — statistical combos in the league is Minnesota’s high-end, five-on-five offense and its league-low 8.4 power-play percentage. The Wild score the most goals and generate the second most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five but cannot translate that success to the man advantage. It’s also unlikely to change Thursday with Colorado boasting a second-ranked 87.7 penalty-kill percentage.
This is another tilt between high-end teams with Minnesota entering with a five-game winning streak, and Colorado winners of four straight. The Wild are definitely the healthier of the two clubs with the Avalanche likely without Cale Makar (upper body) and Connor Timmins (upper body), whereas Minnesota will only be missing Marcus Foligno (undisclosed) from the recent regular lineup. The Avs are expected to have J.T. Compher back from an upper-body injury, which beefs up their supporting cast. With so many mismatches on the docket, it’s not out of the question to approach this matchup cautiously in DFS.
Arizona Coyotes (-134) at Anaheim Ducks
Life without Darcy Kuemper (lower body) is beginning to take its toll on the Coyotes, as Arizona has dropped four consecutive games. Additionally, Antti Raanta couldn’t dress for Tuesday’s 3-0 loss to Minnesota, so it could be No. 3 Adin Hill — and his underwhelming .910 save percentage — starting against Anaheim on Thursday. However, the Coyotes have also dried up offensively with just two goals during the four-game losing streak. As a result, there’s little to be excited about from Arizona — especially in a deep player pool.
Similarly, Anaheim is reeling along a 2-10-3 stretch and has scored the second fewest goals per game in the league this season. The Ducks are healthy up front, though, so there could be a contrarian case for Rickard Rakell or one of the youngsters: Max Comtois, Sam Steele, Troy Terry or Trevor Zegras. Still, it’s difficult to justify too much exposure to the Ducks considering their current form and underwhelming offensive attack.
