Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are seven evening NHL games included in the main contests at most DFS sites Saturday. It’s a balanced slate, too. Nashville, Tampa Bay and Calgary are the largest favorites on the docket — but all under -160 odds. The Montreal/Toronto and Calgary/Vancouver matchups have the highest over/under totals.
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
The Panthers upset the Lightning 5-2 Thursday, as Tampa Bay appeared to miss star Steven Stamkos (lower body). Unfortunately, Stamkos was then placed on the COVID-19 protocol list, so he’s all but officially out for Saturday’s rematch. Making matters worse, second-line center and emerging-star Anthony Cirelli was injured in the third period of Thursday’s game. Cirelli’s status is uncertain. As deep as the Lightning are, these are significant blows. Still, even after allowing five goals Thursday, Tampa Bay has surrendered the fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in the league. Additionally, a bounceback showing from Andrei Vasilevskiy is in the cards.
With Thursday’s win, Florida is now 8-1-2 for the campaign, and Sergei Bobrovsky has now stopped 50 of 53 shots (.943 save percentage) through his past two starts. Impressively, Florida held the Lightning to just 29 shots attempts Thursday, and the Panthers are allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances and third fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in league. Monitor Anthony Duclair’s status for Saturday, as he was placed on the COVID-19 protocol list ahead of Thursday’s game. Veteran Brett Connolly jumped into the top six alongside Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, and Connolly could be a sneaky value if he sticks in the role.
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
The Canadiens have now lost three of their last four games and scored just six goals during the slide. Their Thursday loss to Edmonton was a total trap spot after losing to Toronto Wednesday. The extent of Montreal’s pushback Saturday will be interesting to see. It’s likely that a degree of the Canadiens’ recent scoring woes are just the result of statistical correction after a hot start, but even with the lull, they rank fifth in goals and pace the NHL in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. The toughest part of locking in Habs in DFS is their balanced scoring attack, as on paper and the statsheet, their top three lines are next to interchangeable.
Toronto is cruising along an 8-0-1 stretch with a league-high .949 five-on-five team save percentage. However, their 46.5 Corsi For percentage during the stretch is a red flag, and the Maple Leafs have also surrendered a healthy 11.88 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the run. So, speaking of statistical correction, it will be difficult for Toronto to continue being caved in and treading water with unsustainably spectacular goaltending. It’s a bit of a nitpick, though. Toronto’s best players have taken care of business and there haven’t been many nights off. This is definitely the marquee matchup of the evening.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks
These two teams went tit-for-tat and combined for 11 goals in Thursday’s 6-5 Columbus win. It was slightly uncharacteristic considering the Blue Jackets entered the contest scoring just 2.49 goals while generating the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. Cam Atkinson, Jack Roslovic, Kevin Stenlund and Michael Del Zotto each had multi-point showings Thursday, and the Blue Jackets will also get Zach Werenski (lower body) back in the lineup Saturday. The talent’s in place for Columbus to score, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see.
It’s essentially been a two-man show for Chicago. Patrick Kane has marked the scoresheet in 11 of 15 games this season for 20 points (seven goals), and Alex Debrincat has racked up five tallies, four helpers and four multi-point showings through five games since returning from COVID-19 protocol. Netminder Kevin Lankinen had a rough night Thursday, but even with 11 goals allowed across his first and most recent start, he sports a rock-solid 5-2-3 record, .924 save percentage and 2.54 GAA through 10 games. The jury is out on whether or not he can continue to perform at this level, though.
Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators
With Thursday’s loss, the Red Wings are now reeling along a 1-8-2 stretch and have scored the third-fewest goals and generated the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances per hour in the league at five-on-five for the campaign. Nashville has scored the fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in the league, though, so another low-scoring battle shouldn’t surprise. After all, Nashville netminder Pekka Rinne is in throwback form with a .944 save percentage and 1.81 GAA through his past four starts, and he’s probably earned the bulk of starts moving forward. Juuse Saros .881 and 3.68 marks for the campaign.
Turning to the Red Wings, Dylan Larkin is ripe for a strong showing. He’s registered just a single assist through his past five outings despite attempting 18 shots, including five high-danger chances. His ice time is also up with an average of 22:13 per night through the past three games. This might not be the right matchup, but Larkin’s too talented to stay quiet for much longer.
Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars
Carolina got the best of Dallas with Thursday’s 5-3 win, but it was an incredibly close, back-and-forth game. The shot attempts at five-on-five were dead even with 45 each, and Dallas generated one more high-danger scoring chance overall. Dallas’ new-look second line of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Denis Gurianov were the most dangerous with four high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five, whereas Vincent Trocheck, Brock McGinn and Nino Niederreiter combined for 14 shot attempts with seven being of the high-danger variety.
It’s worth noting that goaltending has been a shortcoming for both clubs of late. Dallas No. 1 Anton Khudobin has surrendered 15 goals with an .866 save percentage through his past four starts, and James Reimer has allowed at least three goals in each of his past five outings for an .877 mark. The difference is Reimer is 4-1, and Khudobin is 0-3-1. Of course, it’s important to remember that Carolina is one of the best five-on-five possession teams in the league with a 56.6 Corsi For percentage and have generated the second-most high-danger scoring chances per hour in the league.
St. Louis Blues at Arizona Coyotes
A three-goal third-period outburst from the Blues paved the way to a 4-1 victory over the Coyotes on Friday, but the shot attempts were a draw at 51 each, and there were just 15 combined high-danger chances in the entire game. Additionally, two of St. Louis’ third-period goals were empty-netters. With No. 1 netminders Darcy Kuemper and Jordan Binnington starting for their respective teams Friday, look for backups Antti Raanta and Ville Husso to start Saturday. It will be just the second start of the campaign for Raanta, and he could be a sneaky option given his .921 save percentage through 35 games dating back to last season, whereas Husso could be in a tough spot. The rookie sports an .870 save percentage and this will be just his fifth NHL start.
The Blues put their lines in the blender Friday, so it will be worth monitoring their combos ahead of Saturday’s contest. However, the Ryan O'Reilly–David Perron–Ivan Barbashev line was arguably St. Louis’ best Friday with three high-danger chances. In a deep player pool, targeting an entire line of Coyotes probably isn’t the best choice, but Nick Schmaltz, Conor Garland and Clayton Keller have been solid for the campaign with 5.06 goals and 16.19 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five while driving possession with a 61.1 Corsi For percentage.
Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks
With the odds in mind, there’s an expectation for a Canucks rebound showing. Vancouver has lost six consecutive games and scored just three goals through its latest three outings, and the Canucks have allowed the most goals and high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five in the league this season. Additionally, Calgary just beat Vancouver 3-1 Thursday. To pile it on more, Flames starter Jacob Markstrom has stopped 58 of 61 shots through his past two starts and is sporting a .921 save percentage and 2.36 GAA through 11 contests. Calgary owns the seventh best Corsi For percentage while surrendering the seventh fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, so the Calgary defense has also been solid.
It’s a little odd Vancouver hasn’t tried to juggle its line or switch things up. They’re projected to roll out Bo Horvat, Nils Hoglander and Tanner Pearson, and Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser as top-six trios again Saturday. With scoring and defense both a problem of late, it’s tough to roll with any Canucks confidently, even with the potential for a bounce-back showing in what amounts to a must-win game to remain in playoff contention. Alternatively, the Flames are definitely in play with the noted Vancouver defensive shortcomings.
