Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the Vancouver-Edmonton game postponed, the featured contests at most DFS sites consist of the eight evening NHL games beginning at 7 p.m. ET. The largest favorites on the docket are the Rangers, Avalanche, Canadiens and Islanders. There are also two rematches from Friday’s slate with San Jose and Los Angeles, and St. Louis and Colorado hitting the ice for the second consecutive night.
Here’s a quick-hit primer to help with your daily and seasonal lineup decisions for Saturday’s action.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Rangers at Sabres preview
(Line: Rangers -250)
While the Rangers only won 3-2 Thursday, they ran all over Buffalo with 46 more shot attempts and 25 high-danger scoring chances. To further illustrate how dominant the Rangers were, the Sabres only registered 36 shot attempts all game. Buffalo netminder Dustin Tokarski was spectacular turning away 44 shots and allowing the Sabres to take it to overtime. Considering how poorly Buffalo has played this season, it will probably take another elite goaltending performance for the Sabres to keep this close. After all, Buffalo has scored the fewest goals per game, allowed the third most and sits in last place in the league.
Turning to the Rangers, it’s obviously a solid spot to consider netminder Igor Shesterkin, and he’s turned in a sterling .934 save percentage and 2.22 GAA through four starts since returning from injury. Superstar Artemi Panarin is also locked in with four tallies and 12 helpers through 11 games since returning from his personal leave, and he’s up to a third-ranked 4.01 points per 60 minutes over the past two seasons. Panarin’s linemate Ryan Strome has also been rolling with an active 11-game point streak and 28 points through the past 22 games. Power-play quarterback Adam Fox is another strong option with Buffalo boasting a middle-of-the-road 80.0 penalty-kill percentage.
Flyers at Islanders preview
(Line: Islanders -180)
This will be an interesting divisional bout because the Islanders are one of the league’s best defensive teams, whereas Philadelphia allowed more goals per game (4.41) than any team in March. The stretch has the Flyers allowing the second most goals per game for the campaign, and there’s nothing scary about their 29th-ranked 73.3 penalty-kill percentage. New York, on the other hand, is cruising along a 20-6-2 stretch with just 2.25 goals against per game. Additionally, the Islanders allow the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Netminders Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin have also combined for the fifth-best team save percentage in the league.
Obviously, it’s a tough matchup for the Flyers, but it’s definitely worth noting that Sean Couturier is rolling along an impressive stretch with 10 tallies and 16 helpers through his past 22 games. The Islanders could have trouble limiting his opportunities, too. From New York, Nick Leddy has been quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit, and he’s a cost-effective DFS option to consider. Additionally, Mathew Barzal has heated up. He’s piled up eight points — four goals — over his past three games.
Stars at Hurricanes preview
(Line: Hurricanes -155)
It’s hard to peg the Stars, because while they’ve been competitive, they can’t string together wins and the games in hand they have aren’t being taken advantage of consistently enough. Dallas is currently five points out of playoff position with four games in hand. Saturday’s opponent is in the heart of the division race and just a point behind the Lightning and Panthers for first place. Carolina also boasts an incredible 11-1-3 home-ice record and has only lost in regulation twice through the past 16 games. The Hurricanes are also a statistically superior team with the fourth most five-on-five high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, the fourth fewest goals per 60, the league’s best power-play percentage and seventh best penalty-kill percentage. As a result, the Stars are more contrarian DFS targets than lineup building blocks.
The Hurricanes got Vincent Trocheck back during the two-game series against Chicago, and the center collected a goal and two helpers to improve to 27 points through 26 contests this season. His return beefs up the Carolina attack and provides the ‘Canes with two excellent mini-stacks to consider: Trocheck and Andrei Svechnikov, and Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas. Aho and Necas have clicked for a rock-solid 4.25 goals and 14.16 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. Additionally, Dougie Hamilton has only missed the scoresheet once in the past 16 games and remains a nightly option until proven otherwise. It’s also a solid matchup for the Hurricanes’ netminder with Dallas scoring just 2.02 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. James Reimer and Alex Nedeljkovic are both in respectable form, too.
Blue Jackets at Panthers preview
(Line: Panthers -159)
Columbus enters with an underwhelming 6-9-4 active record and just a single win through its past six games, yet somehow the Blue Jackets are just three points out of a playoff position. Meanwhile, Florida has won four straight and is tied for first place in the Central Division. This is the fifth meeting between these two teams and the Panthers have won three of the first four and scored 15 goals. Additionally, Florida is expected to have Aleksander Barkov (lower body) during this two-game series against Columbus, which will be a huge boost for the Cats. Barkov has 37 points — 13 goals — through 31 games this season and is one of the best two-way centers in the league.
Columbus is a plus matchup for the Panthers, too. The Blue Jackets have the second-worst Corsi For percentage, have surrendered the ninth-most goals per game and have a 25th-ranked 75.9 penalty-kill percentage. While it might be risky to load up Barkov after returning from a six-game absence, there are solid options to consider. Jonathan Huberdeau has found the scoresheet in four straight games and sports a six-ranked 3.77 points per 60 minutes, and Carter Verhaeghe has five tallies and three helpers through the past four games and is in the midst of a breakout season. Power-play quarterback Keith Yandle is also an option, as he’s racked up 15 points with the man advantage. The Blue Jackets have scored the sixth fewest goals per game, which positions netminder Sergei Bobrovsky or Chris Drieger for success in the favorable matchup.
Senators at Canadiens preview
(Line: Canadiens -230)
The Canadiens had no problem handling Ottawa Thursday with 19 more five-on-five shot attempts and 12 more high-danger scoring chances during their 4-1 win. In particular, the Nicholas Suzuki–Jonathan Drouin–Josh Anderson line was dangerous with 19 shot attempts and five high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. It was the second consecutive loss for the Senators, and while there have been signs over the course of the season, the Sens still allow the most goals per game in the league and have scored the seventh fewest. Their minus-44 goal differential is second worst, too. It projects to be a solid matchup for likely starter Carey Price, and he’s coming off a 17-save shutout against Edmonton Tuesday.
It's worth highlighting how strong Montreal has been at five-on-five. The Canadiens have the second best Corsi For percentage, scored the sixth-most goals per 60 minutes and allowed the fewest while also surrendering the fifth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60. As noted, the Suzuki-Drouin-Anderson line was solid Thursday, but the Phillip Danault–Tomas Tatar–Brendan Gallagher trio scored two five-on-five goals and also drove possession with a 66.7 Corsi For percentage, so there are multiple options to consider from Montreal. Additionally, keeping tabs on Tyler Toffoli’s (lower body) status will be important. He’s missed the past three games.
Blues at Avalanche preview
(Line: Avalanche -250)
The Avalanche caved the Blues in during Friday’s 3-2 win with 52 five-on-five shot attempts and just 29 allowed. Colorado has now also won two of the three meetings between the two teams and outscored the Blues 12-6. There’s a huge statistical disparity between the two clubs, too. The Avs have scored the most goals and allowed the fewest per game, own the best Corsi For percentage and rank ninth in power-play percentage and second in penalty-kill percentage. St. Louis has allowed the eighth-most goals per game and rank 22nd in Corsi For percentage.
The Blues also enter in horrible form with five consecutive losses and just two victories through their past 12 games, which also has them on the outside of the playoff picture. Colorado is just the opposite with an 11-0-2 active stretch. Avs’ netminder Philipp Grubauer has been particularly dominant with wins in 10 of 11 starts, a .948 save percentage and 1.21 GAA during the noted span. Additionally, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen have piled up an incredible 24 goals and 34 assists. It all adds up to Colorado being a significant favorite, and St. Louis likely in tough again Saturday.
Wild at Golden Knights preview
(Line: Golden Knights -152)
The Golden Knights have a mediocre 3-3-1 active record after losing in a shootout to Minnesota Thursday, and it was a statement win by the Wild, as they look to prove they’re a legitimate contender. The win improved Minny to 16-5-2 since late February. Thursday’s contest was predictably close, and Saturday’s should follow suit. One notable difference between the two clubs is Vegas has the sixth best Corsi For percentage in the league, and Minnesota ranks third worst. Additionally, Minnesota’s power-play percentage is last in the league.
It’s definitely worth highlighting Marc-Andre Fleury’s underwhelming recent play with an .893 save percentage and 3.18 GAA through his past nine starts. Meanwhile, likely Minnesota starter Kaapo Kahkonen has allowed nine goals through his past two starts — both losses. Offensively, the Golden Knights are led by Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, and they’ve combined for an impressive 5.6 goals per 60 minutes this season. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Alex Pietrangelo has attempted 19 shots through two games since returning from injury. Minnesota received a goal and an assist from Kirill Kaprizov during Thursday’s win, and the rookie paces the Wild with 30 points for the campaign. Just note, it’s not a great matchup with the Golden Knights allowing the second fewest-goals per game in the league.
Sharks at Kings preview
(Line: Kings -121)
The Sharks have been up and down all season, but they topped Los Angeles Friday to win their third straight game. San Jose generated 13 five-on-five high-danger scoring chances Friday to improve to 11.61 per 60 minutes for the campaign — third most in the league. It will likely be Devan Dubnyk in net for San Jose, and he has a discouraging 3-9-2 record, .898 save percentage and 3.18 GAA through 17 appearances this season. Much of the Sharks’ recent success has been because No. 1 netminder Martin Jones has recorded a 6-1-1 record, .942 save percentage and 1.84 GAA.
With Friday’s loss, the Kings dropped to an active 5-9-3 record and scored just 2.35 goals per game during the stretch. Los Angeles has also lost four of five meetings to the Sharks, and the Kings will likely turn to Jonathan Quick Saturday. He’s lost five of his past six starts with a disastrous .880 save percentage and 3.22 GAA. As a result, the Sharks offense is positioned to have a solid showing, and both of San Jose’s top two lines have potential. However, the Tomas Hertl–Timo Meier–Rudolfs Balcers line was absolutely dominant with 23 shot attempts and nine high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five, and they each scored a goal. It’s also a plus-matchup for the Los Angeles attack. The Sharks have surrendered the fifth-most goals per game, after all.
