Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
With the entire NHL getting Thanksgiving Day off, we return on Black Friday with 14 total games along with an eight-game main slate that will start at 3 p.m. ET. The main slate is broken down in the NHL DFS section in our free fantasy hockey Discord. This article will go through my favorite NHL bets throughout the day.
But remember, with our FTN betting package, you’ll get picks from everyone at FTN, plus tools, projections and access to Discord, where I’ll discuss every slate.
Today’s Best NHL Bets
Tampa Bay Lightning ML
(-104, BetRivers)
The Lightning have had the upper hand against the Predators over the last 3-4 years, including a few years back when they were in the same division due to the pandemic. The Lightning have won 13 of the last 16 meetings between the two teams. Obviously, there has been a good amount of turnover over the last few years, and nothing stranger than Steven Stamkos making the jump to the Music City, but at least in terms of the 2024-25 versions of these two teams, the Lightning are a team trending upward while the Predators have been a bit of a mess the entire season. I have the Lightning with a big edge over the Predators, so -104 for the ML is clear value.
Brock Nelson Over 0.5 Assists
(+185, Bet365/DraftKings Sportsbook)
In Mathew Barzal’s absence, Nelson’s line with Maxim Tsyplakov and Kyle Palmieri has been the most consistent line on the Islanders roster. In fact, the trio have scored roughly 40% of the team’s goals this season. They are truly the team’s glue, and over the last three games, Nelson has been able to rack up seven points, with four of those points being assists. This matchup against the Capitals isn’t completely ideal, but with Nelson a big part of the team’s top power-play unit, I am very comfortable taking this prop at +185.
Filip Forsberg Under 3.5 SOG
(+110, Bet365)
We are going to continue to take Filip Forsberg SOG unders as long as his current shot rate hangs around where it currently is. Forsberg is no longer the No. 1 scoring option on the top power-play unit and that has naturally led to a big hit in Forsberg’s overall aggression with the man advantage. Sometimes it sounds so elementary, people don’t vocalize it. This is a situation where a) Power plays are usually the best opportunity to rack up SOG and score goals, b) If you’re the No. 1 scoring option on the power play, you’re going to get more SOG and goals than the other players on the PP unit.
Bonus Bets
Tage Thompson Over 3.5 SOG (+120, Caesars)
Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 Assists (+110, Bet365)
Yegor Sharangovich Over 2.5 SOG (-125, BetMGM)
Yegor Sharangovich Over 0.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
Kent Johnson Over 0.5 Points (+120, BetMGM)
Seth Jarvis Over 2.5 SOG (+145, Bet365)
Martin Necas Over 0.5 Assists (-110, DraftKings)
Adrian Kempe Over 3.5 SOG (+105, Bet365)
William Eklund Over 0.5 Assists (+140, DraftKings)
Goal Scorers
Matt Boldy
Tage Thompson
Timo Meier
Maxim Tsyplakov
Seth Jarvis
Jack Drury
Yegor Sharangovich
Anthony Cirelli
Jake Guentzel
Adrian Kempe
Warren Foegele
Brett Leason
Fabian Zetterlund
Eeli Tolvanen
