Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Best call drafts are in full swing, but unlike season-long fantasy football leagues, the draft isn’t just the most important thing — it’s the only thing. With no creative license once the final pick is in, you need to enter the draft with a strategy and stick to it.
This article will look at the tried and true strategy: RB-heavy. While not as trendy as zero-RB or modified zero-RB, this old-guard approach to fantasy drafts maintains appeal.
What is the RB-heavy draft strategy?
The RB-heavy strategy is basically exactly what it sounds like: You draft an RB in each of the first three rounds before going for a WR or TE (or QB).
Some people take it a step further by draft four (or even five) RBs to begin a draft, but that’s overkill. Three RBs through three rounds should do the trick.
The appeal of the strategy rests in the fact that in fantasy, RB scoring is top-heavy, while the WR position is much deeper.
In 2019, the top 20 fantasy running backs scored 42.4% of all RB fantasy points. Similarly, the top 10 RBs (the top 6%) scored 25% of the points.
Now let’s compare that to WRs. The top 20 wideouts accounted for 29% of all fantasy points scored by the position. The top 10 accounted for 16% of points scored.
By drafting three top-20 RBs, you’re stealing an exponentially bigger slice of the pie.
Best draft slots for RB-heavy in 2020
In 2020 fantasy best ball drafts, you can reasonably pull off the RB-heavy draft strategy from any draft slot.
However, by far my favorite position to pull this strategy off from is 1.01-1.03. There’s a reasonable possibility that you’ll end up with three great RBs from the early draft slots.
- Early (1.01-1.03): Your targets are Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Ezekiel Elliott. At the Rounds 2/3 turn, you’d want to target Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Aaron Jones or Austin Ekeler. Not all of these players would fall to you — but if they do, you might want to seriously consider RB-heavy.
Other draft slots can certainly work, but the third RB you’d have to take will likely be a Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley or David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell — players who don’t instill a ton of confidence for 2020.
Heavy-RB is not recommended if you end up with a question mark among your top-tier RBs. The whole purpose of the strategy is to gobble up as much of the top-tier value as possible. If you’re going to take a swing at the RB position, do it later in the draft when the capital spent isn’t as valuable.
Top WR and TE targets later in the draft
If you’re going to roll with the RB-heavy approach, it means you’re going to have to nail your WR (and TE) picks later in best ball drafts to have a shot.
Fortunately, there are a lot of great WRs still on the board between Rounds 4-7. Here are just a few:
- At least a few of these WRs are usually available in Round 4, and any one of them would make for a solid first wideout pick in your RB-heavy draft: Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp
- These middle rounds are actually littered with great WR options, including many players primed for early-career breakouts: Courtland Sutton, D.K. Metclaf, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin.
- You can also get older WRs at a discount because of question marks at their team’s QB position, including Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton and Stefon Diggs.
Zero-RB or modified zero-RB may be the trendier strategies right now, flipping the switch and going RB-heavy has serious charm in 2020 given the WRs available in the middle rounds.
