WR/CB matchups for fantasy football

Fantasy football is all about the matchups, especially when it comes to WR vs. CB. Remember when fantasy matchup analysis used to be “Team A gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers”? Well, we’ve moved from analog to digital and now look at matchups on an individual level.

Each week, I dig through the FTN Data to identify the actual coverage tendencies for all 32 NFL teams and compile this information in the WR/CB Matchups Tool. The information is then distilled down to give you the biggest upgrades and downgrades this week.

Before we get into this week’s information, we should note a few things about shadow coverage. For starters, shadow coverage is relatively rare in the NFL. In fact, so teams don’t use it at all and instead just let their corners play their sides. We track all shadow situations in our Shadow Index.

A shadow situation occurs when a corner travels with a wide receiver around the formation. Shadows can occur for an entire game or only part of the contest. A shadow situation do not mean the corner is on the receiver 100% of the time. This isn’t backyard football. Receivers move around and occasionally will avoid the shadow. Also, a shadow situation is not always a bad thing for receivers. If the corner is not particular good, the receiver could actually benefit from the shadow.

Matchup upgrades | Week 3 WR/CB matchups

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jacksonville

While Rondale Moore has seen a lot of attention from the fantasy playing public over the last week, DeAndre Hopkins is still the clear lead dog. Here’s the Cardinals’ routes run through the first two games: Hopkins 74, A.J. Green 67, Christian Kirk 52, Moore 38. Hopkins is not only dominating the reps, but he also gets a fantastic matchup in this one. The Jags secondary has allowed a whopping 25 catches on 33 targets at a clip of 14.3 yards per catch this season.

Cooper Kupp vs. Tampa Bay

He’s emerged as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target, and that isn’t likely to change this week. Cooper Kupp draws a fantastic matchup out of the slot against a hobbled Bucs secondary. With Sean Murphy-Bunting injured, Tampa has had to turn to Ross Cockrell in the slot. The veteran corner has allowed 12 catches on 14 targets.

DJ Moore/Robby Anderson vs. Houston

Some things never change. The Texans still struggle in coverage, with opposing wideouts catching 17-of-27 targets against Terrance Mitchell, Vernon Hargreaves and Desmond King so far this season. That’s great news for DJ Moore, who already has 14 catches on 19 targets for the season. However, Robby Anderson might give some of us pause, as he’s caught just four balls through the first two games. However, his nine targets have come at an average depth of 21 yards downfield. A breakout game is brewing for Anderson, and this is the matchup to help it come to fruition.

Kenny Golladay/Sterling Shepard vs. Atlanta

Through two games, Falcons cornerbacks have allowed a whopping four touchdowns in their coverage. Sterling Shepard has been an early-season surprise with 16 catches through the first two weeks. He figures to continue to see heavy volume. However, Kenny Golladay has caught just seven balls so far. However, like Robby Anderson, those targets are much further downfield at a 15.4-yard aDOT. Golladay offers major upside against this suspect secondary.

Other matchup upgrades: The Packers got back on track last week and face a banged-up San Francisco secondary. That’s good news for Davante Adams. … Gamescript may not be favorable for the Denver passing game, but Courtland Sutton gets a nice matchup boost against a shaky Jets secondary. Look for Sutton to have his way with rookie Brandin Echols and Bryce Hall on the outside. … Marquise Brown has been excellent through the first two games of the season, and he should continue his productive ways against arguably the league’s worst secondary. Detroit will have to turn to relative unknown Bobby Price after losing their starting left corner in each of the last two weeks. … The Patriots passing game has been far from potent so far this year, but there’s reason to like Jakobi Meyers against a banged-up Saints secondary. If C.J. Gardner Johnson can’t go, it’ll be P.J. Williams in the slot. Advantage Meyers.

Matchup downgrades | Week 3 WR/CB matchups

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin vs. LA Rams

Let’s be clear that despite what you might be hearing elsewhere, Jalen Ramsey isn’t likely to shadow Evans in this one. Yes, he did shadow Mike Evans in Week 11 last season, but that was when the Rams had Troy Hill. In nickel, Hill primarily covered the slot. With Hill out of the mix, Ramsey has been the primary slot corner when the Rams go to subpackages. But shadow coverage or not, this is still a tough matchup for Evans and Chris Godwin. Ramsey and Darious Williams are both allowing under 8.0 yards per catch on the season.

Calvin Ridley vs. James Bradberry (expected shadow)

The Giants like to shadow opposing No. 1 receivers with James Bradberry, so expect the star treatment for Calvin Ridley in this one. While we do have this as a downgrade, there’s a chance it isn’t a major damper on Ridley’s outlook. Bradberry was excellent last season, but through two games he’s allowed 12 catches on 15 targets with two scores in his coverage.

DeVonta Smith vs. Trevon Diggs (expected shadow)

Dallas looks like they have themselves a potential budding star in Trevon Diggs. The second-year man has been tasked with shadowing Mike Evans and Keenan Allen over the first two games and will almost certainly be on his former college teammate, DeVonta Smith. While Smith flashed in Week 1, the Eagles passing game is still rounding into form. That coupled with Diggs’ solid play is more than enough to fade Smith this week.

Other matchup downgrades: Yes, Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs connected on a deep touchdown last week, but don’t chase last week’s production. Ruggs is going to have his hands full with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside. … With Tyrell Williams landing on injured reserve, Quintez Cephus finds himself as an unlikely No. 1 wideout for the Lions. While he will have value at times in that role, this is not one of them. Cephus is overmatched against the Ravens. … It’s been an extremely disappointing start to the season for Brandon Aiyuk, and it’s likely things don’t improve this week with Jaire Alexander on the other side of the ball. … Zach Wilson and the Jets looked bad last week and have to face one of the league’s better secondaries in Denver. Corey Davis gets a downgrade in this tough matchup. … And the defense who put a clown suit on Wilson last week goes up against Jameis Winston and the Saints this week. While there’s still long-term appeal to Marquez Callaway, it’s tough to like him against the Patriots secondary.