Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL offseason never disappoints.
We’ve seen heated contract talks, big-name free agent signings and huge trades that promise to make an impact (good or bad) on the NFL and fantasy football landscape.
Training camps are less than two months away, so let’s take a look at the worst offseason moves for fantasy football in 2024.
Worst Offseason Moves for Fantasy Football
Stefon Diggs to the Texans
Last year’s run by the Texans was magical.
Houston entered the 2023 campaign with minimal expectations behind a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud and a first-year head coach in DeMeco Ryans. What followed was a 10-7 record, an AFC South title and a 45-14 pummeling of the Cleveland Browns in the first round of the playoffs. While the Texans could be even better in 2024, their fantasy situation became extremely muddled when four-time Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston from Buffalo in early April.
The addition of Diggs adds a huge variable to a Houston passing attack that had a clearly delineated route tree. Nico Collins was the clear top option, finishing as the overall WR7 in fantasy points per game after posting 80 receptions, 1,297 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Speedy and versatile Tank Dell was the clear second option, enjoying a brilliant three-week stretch where he registered the overall WR1, WR12 and WR3 performance in Weeks 9-11 before a broken fibula ended this season. Tight end Dalton Schultz was a fantastic third option, finishing as a fantasy TE1 with 59 receptions, 635 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
The arrival of Diggs certainly doesn’t help the Texans pass catchers and diminishes their upside. Per FTN Charting Data, Diggs produced a top-10 target share in Buffalo, finishing with 160 targets. His arrival helps quarterback C.J. Stroud but injects confusion on the fantasy projections for all other Houston pass catchers.
Tony Pollard Signs with the Titans
Tony Pollard was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football last season. Carrying a pricy ADP of 13.5 in PPR leagues, Pollard finished the year seventh in carries (252) but only 12th in rushing yards (1,005). Per FTN charting data, Pollard was second in red zone touches (72) but only scored six total touchdowns. He now joins a Tennessee offense that was one of the league’s most inefficient, ranking 25th in offensive DVOA, and will split touches with second-year running back Tyjae Spears.
Spears is just as strong as pass catcher as Pollard, finishing ninth in positional targets (70) and top-10 in receptions (52) despite splitting carries with Derrick Henry all season. The Titans simply replicated Spears with Pollard, with neither having the skill set to demand the majority of touches to start the season. This backfield will be a true 50/50 split, with new head coach Brian Callahan likely riding the “hot hand” on a weekly basis.
Denver Broncos Offense
Denver fans may actually be longing for the days of Russell Wilson if things don’t go right in 2024.
After starting the year a dreadful 1-5, the Broncos reeled off five straight wins including a 24-9 home victory over Kansas City. Denver’s offense was average but wasn’t nearly strong enough to compensate for a Broncos defense that ranked 30th overall in defensive DVOA. Despite the critics, Wilson completed over 66 percent of his passes and threw 26 touchdown passes with just 8 interceptions.
With Wilson now in Pittsburgh, the Broncos have turned the quarterback duties over to some combination of rookie Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. The questions remain on whether Nix is really a franchise quarterback, and Stidham and Wilson won’t inspire a 2024 playoff run. Nix is already garnering praise from head coach Sean Payton, and Wilson brings high draft capital a huge arm over from the Jets. The issue will be maintaining consistency for fantasy purposes.
There is also a logjam at the running back and wide receiver positions. Denver’s leading rusher is presumed to be Javonte Williams, who Payton did not draft. Last year’s UDFA, Jaleel McLaughlin, impressed enough to siphon touches away from Williams all season. This year, the Broncos drafted Notre Dame rusher Audric Estime in the fifth round and signed Memphis-product Blake Watson as an undrafted free agent this offseason. Veteran Samaje Perine is also still on the roster, although he is a likely cut candidate in August.
The wide receiver room is led by Courtland Sutton, who still is rumored to be traded. Denver has veteran Tim Patrick returning from two seasons worth of injuries (torn ACL, Achilles), and added productive veteran Josh Reynolds from Detroit. The Broncos are also hoping speedy second-year wideout Marvin Mims can make a bigger impact than just on special teams, and to add even more confusion, Denver drafted Oregon standout in the fourth-round of this year’s draft.
There certainly is talent here, but the Denver roster is laden with uncertainty, which is exactly what we want to avoid in redraft leagues.
Rhamondre Stevenson Gets Competition
The main fantasy value for Rhamondre Stevenson has come from the passing game, where he has produced 107 receptions and 659 receiving yards the past two seasons. Stevenson lost carries Ezekiel Elliott last year and New England now committed a three-year, $11.3 million contract to Antonio Gibson with $5.3 million guaranteed. Gibson excels in the passing game and has seen a steady increase in receptions during each of his four seasons, from 36 to 48 grabs last year.
New England should have better quarterback play, but Drake Maye under center certainly comes with some risk. After a disappointing season with only Zeke in the backfield, I can’t project a better year with Antonio Gibson providing a bigger obstacle in the passing game.
San Francisco 49ers Offense
There is a huge difference between my expectations for the 49ers’ actual NFL success and their fantasy football projections.
The key to the 49ers attack is running back Christian McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing yards (1459) and total touchdowns (21). The problem isn’t McCaffrey, it’s trying to determine how the rest of the fantasy production will be allotted.
Per our Underdog ADP Tool, the rest of the San Francisco playmakers have lofty projections. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (WR12) and Deebo Samuel (WR15) and getting selected in the first two rounds of Best Ball drafts, while first-round rookie wideout Ricky Pearsall already shined in OTAs. Tight end George Kittle also siphons production, making this a difficult offense to project on a weekly basis.
The volatility of San Francisco’s offensive playmakers is challenging in redraft formats where weekly scoring equates to victories. While Deebo Samuel finished as the overall WR12 in PPR formats, he posted seven weeks where he failed to even finish as a WR2, including five weeks where he failed to reach WR3 status. Aiyuk finished as the WR16 but failed to score better than the overall WR22 in seven of the first 10 weeks. That’s too much volatility for players who are getting drafted before Round 3.
Every player in this offense is second fiddle to McCaffrey, who has posted 152 receptions and 1305 receiving yards the past two combined seasons. From a fantasy perspective, the best news for this offense would be for the Aiyuk trade rumors to become a reality. Without that clarity, this offense (besides McCaffrey) remains an expensive, muddled mess.
Los Angeles Rams Draft Blake Corum
At this time last season, the Rams running back depth chart was Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, Zach Evans and Ronnie Rivers. Williams was very much an unknown fifth-round draft pick from 2022, after suffering a preseason foot fracture that eliminated his rookie season.
But after a two-touchdown performance in Week 1 last season, Williams took hold of the Rams’ RB1 and never looked back. Akers was soon traded to Minnesota and Williams became the overall RB2 in fantasy football. Per FTN charting data, Williams finished first among all running backs with 200 carries in yards per carry (5.4) and eighth in evaded tackles. The Rams were so impressed with Williams’ elite season that they decided …
To draft Michigan’s Blake Corum in the third round of the draft.
Corum was the major offensive weapon for the national champion Michigan Wolverines, rushing for 1,245 yards and a mind-blowing 27 touchdowns. The rave reviews have already started to come on Corum’s projected three-down ability, and Corum himself is not conceding the starting running back to Williams. It’s hard to see Williams not starting the season as the clear RB1 after last season, but Corum’s presence will continue to limit Williams upside all season.
Williams has already suffered four foot injuries since entering the NFL, which is yet another unknown variable that confounds this backfield touch share. Earlier this offseason, Williams was going as a first-round best ball pick. The uncertainty has pushed him down to overall RB8 with a 27.1 ADP on Underdog. The uncertainty and unknown of this Rams rushing attack has only just begun.
