Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The saying in fantasy football is you can’t win a draft in your first round, but you can lose it. In the NFL Draft, it’s not quite the same, because you have a whole roster in place already, but still, screwing up your first pick in the draft is a crushing blow, and it can interrupt or kill a rebuild all on its own.
Today, I’m looking back at the last decade of drafts to find each team’s worst pick in that time. Definitionally, those basically have to be first-round picks — not hitting a home run on a third-rounder or whatever just doesn’t matter that much.
Generally speaking, these picks are considered in a vacuum, but sometimes you have no choice but to look at who a team didn’t take in their spots, especially when it’s a much better player at the same position. So that comes into play sometimes.
Wednesday, I looked at each team’s best pick of the last decade. Today, the worst:
Every Team’s Worst Pick of the NFL Draft: 2014-2023
Arizona Cardinals: Josh Rosen, QB
1.10, 2018
Josh Rosen got enough hype that there were some questions whether he could go first overall, over Baker Mayfield. In the end, he went 10th, the fourth quarterback after Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen. He took over as the Cardinals starter in Week 4 as a rookie and got his first win in Week 5 … but that was the high point. He never passed for more than 252 yards in a game. His one 3-score game also featured 9-of-20 passing for 136 yards in a loss. After his rookie year, the Cardinals dealt him to Miami to make room for new starter Kyler Murray. He made only three starts in Miami before being benched, after which he bounced around (Tampa, San Francisco, Atlanta, Cleveland, Minnesota) before his career apparently ended in 2023.
Atlanta Falcons: Takkarist McKinley, EDGE
1.26, 2017
The Falcons have actually kind of nailed the first round over the last 10 years, unless you believe Kyle Pitts makes for a bust (and come on, he had 1,000 yards as a rookie tight end). If not, McKinley is the best option here. He played four years in Atlanta, though he was only a full-time starter in 2019 and by 2020 was demanding a trade and ultimately waived. He bounced around five franchises over the next three years before his career ended.
Baltimore Ravens: Breshad Perriman, WR
1.26, 2015
Breshad Perriman never had a 650-yard season, only started more than four games in a season once, only topped 3 touchdowns once (and that wasn’t even the same year he was a starter). Teams kept finding him interesting — after three years in Baltimore (including no playing time as a rookie), he bounced around seven other teams a combined eight times.
Honorable mention: Rashod Bateman (2021)
Buffalo Bills: Kaiir Elam, CB
1.23, 2022
Even with a mass exodus from Buffalo this offseason, Elam isn’t in line to be a starter in 2024, which is rough for a first-round cornerback entering his third season. He hasn’t played 500 snaps or put up a PFF grade of even 60.0 in either of his first two seasons. There’s still time to recover, but so far this looks like a wasted pick.
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB
1.01, 2023
If there’s time for Elam to turn things around, there’s even more for Young. But so far at least, this pick has been a disaster for Carolina. They passed on C.J. Stroud to take Young, and they gave up the pick that will certainly become Caleb Williams to take him. But after surrounding him with the worst supporting cast in the league as a rookie, the Panthers got only a QB23 fantasy finish out of Young and only two weeks of a QB15 fantasy finish or better.
Chicago Bears: Mitch Trubisky, QB
1.02, 2017
Trubisky had the single-season Bears fantasy record for a quarterback until Justin Fields’ 2022, which says way more about the Bears’ history than it does about Trubisky. He didn’t reach 3,300 yards or 15 touchdowns in a season in Chicago, and of course the Bears took him before Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson and gave up their first-round pick and the picks that became Alvin Kamara and Tedric Thompson to do so.
Honorable mention: Kevin White (2015)
Cincinnati Bengals: John Ross, WR
1.09, 2017
Ross’ celebrity skyrocketed when he set a then-record 4.22-second 40 time at the Combine. He went ninth in the draft but was only sixth on the Bengals’ WR depth chart. He got one touch as a rookie, a 12-yard carry that ended with a lost fumble. He did do better in 2018 (7 touchdowns) and 2019 (506 yards, including the overall WR1 through Week 2), but he ended his Bengals career with only 733 receiving yards, and after 224 yards with the Giants in 2021, ended his career without ever getting to 1,000.
Honorable mention: Billy Price (2018)
Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel, QB
1.22, 2014
I don’t know how much weight an unhoused guy saying “Draft Johnny Manziel!” actually influenced Browns owner Jimmy Haslam, but it’s a heck of a story either way. The Browns did end up taking Manziel 22nd, and he started eight games for them over two years, averaging just over 200 yards a game and putting up 7 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. The Browns dumped him after two seasons, and he went on to play in the CFL, AAF and Fan Controlled Football before his professional career ended.
Honorable mention: Corey Coleman (2016)
Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott, RB
1.04, 2016
Hear me out on this one. First off, the Cowboys have actually been fairly spot-on in the first round over the last decade. The other options here are Zack Martin, Byron Jones, Taco Charlton, Leighton Vander Esch, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons, Tyler Smith and Mazi Smith, so Charlton is the only other real candidate here. But I’m taking Elliott, because while he was excellent as a Cowboy, he went fourth overall in a draft that saw Jalen Ramsey, Ronnie Stanley and DeForest Buckner go as the next three picks, and all three of those would have been better value-wise. Great career, bad pick at fourth overall.
Denver Broncos: Paxton Lynch, QB
1.26, 2016
The Cowboys reportedly desperately wanted Lynch in the draft, but when they missed out on him they settled for … Dak Prescott. Lynch ended up starting four games (playing five) over two years for the Broncos, and he averaged under 200 yards a game and put up 4 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. Now, he’s just a footnote on the increasingly long list of post-Peyton Manning quarterbacks Denver has cycled through.
Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB
1.03, 2020
Jameson Williams might end up on this list if he doesn’t start to put things together in his third season, but at least he was 12th overall and not third like Okudah. He didn’t play a lot in his first two years, only managed two interceptions in three years in Detroit, and has yet to put up his first career PFF grade of 60 or higher.
Green Bay Packers: Darnell Savage, S
1.21, 2019
The Packers haven’t had a lot of home runs in the first round in the last decade, but they haven’t had a lot of disasters either. Just a bunch of fine-but-unspectacular picks. Even Savage started out fine, with 6 interceptions over his first two years. But the wheels kind of came off starting in his third season.
Houston Texans: Kenyon Green, G
1.15, 2022
Green was the last-ranked guard in PFF grading as a rookie, a 37.7 that is tough to look at. And then he missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury. He’s slated to start again in 2024, so he could turn things around, but he’s going to have to.
Indianapolis Colts: Phillip Dorsett, WR
1.29, 2015
The Dorsett pick was seen as a questionable call when it was made, and nothing that happened after changed things. He’s now played for six teams (including three in 2021 alone) without ever having 600 yards in a season. He’s still going, but at age 31, he’s probably not going to turn it around.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, EDGE
1.01, 2022
There wasn’t an obvious first overall pick in 2022, but Walker has still come up short, one of the lowest-graded EDGE defenders over his two years. And of course, he went right before Aidan Hutchinson and shortly ahead of Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner. The opportunity cost on this one was massive.
Kansas City Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB
1.32, 2020
Edwards-Helaire’s rookie year was his best year, with 803 yards and 1,100 scrimmage yards. But he struggled at the goal line starting in Week 1, and his success was primarily because, with Damien Williams opted out for 2020, the team didn’t have many options. He’s been basically shoved aside in Kansas City since, but if you remember the 2020 buzz, him in that offense catching passes from that quarterback, he was a first-round fantasy pick as a rookie, and that didn’t work out.
Las Vegas Raiders: Henry Ruggs, WR/Damon Arnette, CB
1.12/1.19, 2020
It is not difficult to identify a bad Raiders first-round pick. The hard task here is to pick only one … so I refuse to. At least most years, they screw up their first-rounder in a vacuum. But in 2020, they had two bites at the apple, and could scarcely have done worse. They took Ruggs only a few picks before CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson, then got Arnette later in the first. Neither even made it through two seasons on the Raiders, and while it was for off-the-field reasons both times, neither was doing much on the field either. Just an all-time fail of a round.
Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR
1.21, 2023
It looks like Johnston will get his chance to be the WR1 or WR2 in Los Angeles in 2024 after Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (and Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett) left town this offseason, so maybe his second year will be an improvement. But then it almost has to be, because he managed only 431 yards and 2 touchdowns despite playing all 17 games, never scoring more than 13.4 PPR points in a game or having even a single top-25 weekly fantasy finish. Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison were the next two picks off the board after Johnston, so there’s a chance this ends up looking even worse.
Los Angeles Rams: Greg Robinson, T
1.02, 2014
This pick almost had to be Robinson by default, because the Rams have had fewer first-rounders in the last decade than any other team, and they’ve actually fared well with them. Of their four first-rounders in the last 10 years, three of them (Jared Goff, who got them to a Super Bowl; Todd Gurley, who was the RB standard bearer for a couple years; and Aaron Donald, maybe the best defensive player ever) could hardly be criticized. So Robinson had to be the answer here even if he had been pretty good, and … he wasn’t, really. He was a starter almost right away (12 starts as a rookie, 42 starts in three seasons with the team), but his best PFF grade as a Ram was 61.3 as a rookie, and that’s not “second overall pick”-worthy. The Rams could have gotten Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan or Zack Martin with that pick, and that’s just O-linemen — maybe they could have utilized Khalil Mack, or Mike Evans, or Odell Beckham Jr. instead of an underwhelming tackle.
Miami Dolphins: Noah Igbinoghene, CB
1.30, 2020
It was tempting to go with DeVante Parker here, because he went 14th overall in 2015 and averaged under 600 yards for his first four seasons with only 9 total touchdowns. But he redeemed himself with a 1,200-yard, 9-touchdown season in 2019 that was good for a WR11 finish. So instead it’s Igbinoghene, who spent three years as a part-time player (at best) in Miami, with only five starts and one interception. The good news for the Dolphins is that Igbinoghene was their third first-rounder that year, so by that point it’s kind of gravy. The bad news is Austin Jackson, their second first-rounder that year, hasn’t exactly become a star, and their first first-rounder, Tua Tagovailoa, is still a question mark.
Minnesota Vikings: Jeff Gladney, CB
1.31, 2020
Gladney only played one year in the NFL before a domestic violence indictment forced his release. He was acquitted of the charges and signed with the Cardinals, but he went on to die in a car crash a couple months later. So this one is a real downer and I’m sorry for bringing it up.
Honorable mention: Laquon Treadwell (2016)
New England Patriots: N’Keal Harry, WR
1.32, 2019
Late-era Bill Belichick really struggled to develop receivers in New England, and Harry is the tentpole here. In three years in New England, he totaled only 598 receiving yards, and it wasn’t like he thrived afterward, with 116 yards in one year in Chicago and then just special-teams work in Minnesota in 2023. Oh, and the next two receivers off the board were Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown, with DK Metcalf later in the second round.
New Orleans Saints: Trevor Penning, T
1.19, 2022
Penning wasn’t a disaster in his playing time as a rookie in 2022, but injuries limited him to six games. He played all 17 games in 2023, but only started five games and was one of the worst blocking linemen in the game. Making matters worse, the Saints traded up to get Penning, giving up their 2023 first-rounder (which became No. 10 overall and Jalen Carter) and their 2024 second, which will be No. 50 overall next week. Big price for a guy they are already rumored to be looking to replace in this year’s draft.
New York Giants: Kadarius Toney, WR
1.20, 2021
Toney was seen as a very questionable selection to begin with, but when he had 16 receptions on 22 targets for 267 yards in Weeks 4-5 as a rookie, there was some excitement. He’s totaled 479 yards in 27 games total since then, getting dumped to Kansas City and being a big punch line around the NFL in 2023. Hey, he has two rings, though.
New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB
1.02, 2021
The QB class in the 2021 NFL Draft has turned into a bit of a disaster, all told, but Wilson is the headliner of that list. Last year was his first year with more touchdown passes than interceptions, and even that was 8 TDs against 7 INTs in 12 games. He’s only managed a 73.2 passer rating in three years. The defense has been so good that even competent quarterbacking would have made the Jets contenders the last couple years, and instead they’ve had one of the worst QBs in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Reagor, WR
1.21, 2020
Everyone messes up receivers sometimes, especially in the back half of the first round. Reagor never found much success in Philadelphia, still looking for his first career 400-yard or 3-touchdown season. That’s bad enough as it is. But of course, the worst part of the Reagor pick is that the Vikings went one pick later and got maybe the best receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson. And even after that, the next three receivers off the board were Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. There were so many ways for the Eagles to go right, but instead it all went wrong.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB
1.20, 2022
In 25 games, Pickett has multiple touchdowns in a game once. The better part of two years as a first-round starter, he’s generated 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 25 games. He’s lost his gig in Pittsburgh and is now a backup in Philadelphia who the team hopes to never have to use. The 2022 QB class was not seen as very impressive in advance, and boy it’s even come in under the bar despite that.
San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance, QB
1.03, 2021
Maybe the 49ers would have had more success if they had taken Mac Jones third overall, as was rumored. Or maybe he would have muddled along as a so-so starter and it just would have kept the 49ers from getting Brock Purdy. Either way, Lance only got four starts over two years in San Francisco, and it was partly bad luck — two emergency starts as a backup, a monsoon where no one could have had success, and a last start where he got hurt. Now, he’s in Dallas, where he didn’t even see the field in 2023. And the fact that the 49ers traded three first-rounders and more for the right to take and fail on Lance just twists the knife.
Honorable mention: Solomon Thomas/Reuben Foster (2017)
Seattle Seahawks: L.J. Collier, DI
1.29, 2019
Collier spent only one year as a starter, in 2020. Outside of that year, he’s played 30 games in the NFL and started exactly one, and that was after he left Seattle, in Arizona in 2023. He’s only had a PFF grade of higher than a lowly 47.1 once, and even that only climbed to 59.1 in 2020. So his best career season was one where he ranked 84th among interior defenders in PFF grading.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves, CB
1.11, 2016
Hargreaves wasn’t awful as a rookie, playing over 1,000 snaps and thriving against the run, albeit with some struggles against the pass. But that was also his peak, as injuries and his pass-game struggles killed his value, with only part-time playing time in Tampa in 2017-2019 and bouncing to Houston and Cincinnati before his career ended in 2021.
Tennessee Titans: Isaiah Wilson, T
1.29, 2020
Maybe the easiest call on this list. Wilson played one snap in the NFL, failing to win the starting job before the season, hitting the COVID-19 list multiple times, getting suspended late in the season, and making it onto the field for one snap in the third quarter of Week 12. He declared he wouldn’t play for the Titans again, was traded for a seventh-round pick swap and waived three days later, landed on the Giants, never played there, was suspended after he was released. Just an absolute mess of a pick.
Washington Commanders: Dwayne Haskins, QB
1.15, 2019
Haskins is the flag for the people who swear Ohio State quarterbacks can’t succeed in the NFL to wave. Or at least he was in a pre-C.J. Stroud world. He was a bust in Washington, with 12 touchdowns against 14 interceptions in 16 games over two years, averaging only 201.0 passing yards per start. His career ended prematurely when he died in 2022, but even without that, he had already moved on from Washington and was never going to go down as a successful pick.
