Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2024 NFL Draft is just over a week away. Like our fantasy football drafts, generally speaking, the NFL Draft is predictable — the true difference-makers go the earliest, the so-so names in the middle, and the guys at the end are the ones who you aren’t counting on much from, the ones who it’s a bonus if they really matter to you.
But also like fantasy drafts, if you hit on one of your late-draft picks, it can take you from contender to champion.
Today, I’m looking through the last decade of drafts to find each team’s best pick. Nobody is impressed if your pick that was fifth overall in the first round becomes an All-Pro; everybody is impressed if your pick that was fifth from the end of the draft does. So there are no Day 1 or Day 2 picks here. Who did the best work on Day 3?
Let’s check it out. (Friday, I’ll look at the worst picks in the last decade.)
Every Team’s Best Pick of the NFL Draft: 2014-2023
Arizona Cardinals: Chase Edmonds, RB
4.134, 2018
The Cardinals haven’t had massive Day 3 success in the last decade, but Chase Edmonds stands out as a bright spot. He had back-to-back seasons of at least 850 yards in 2020 and 2021, including an RB25 PPR finish in 2020. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.
Atlanta Falcons: Grady Jarrett, DT
5.137, 2015
Two Pro Bowl appearances, a second-team All-Pro. 34 sacks in nine seasons. Played 135 of his first 138 career games, all for the Falcons, before a torn ACL in Week 8 last year. You can’t really ask for more out of the first pick of the fifth round.
Honorable mention: De’Vondre Campbell (R4, 2016), Devonta Freeman (R4, 2014), Foyesade Oluokun (R6, 2018)
Baltimore Ravens: Matt Judon, DE
5.146, 2016
Half of Matt Judon’s four career Pro Bowls have come since he left the Ravens for the Patriots in 2018, but they still got five years of strong production from their fifth-rounder, and he went on to garner Defensive Player of the Year votes in 2022.
Honorable mention: Za’Darius Smith (R4, 2015), Darren Waller (R6, 2015)
Buffalo Bills: Matt Milano, LB
5.163, 2017
Matt Milano was a first-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowler in 2022, and his Week 5 fractured leg in 2023 really threw the Buffalo defense into a lurch for a while.
Carolina Panthers: Daryl Williams, T
4.102, 2015
The Panthers’ Day 3 history over the last decade has been pretty brutal. Daryl Williams was a second-team All Pro in 2017, but he had two seasons with Carolina with two or fewer starts, left after 2019 and is now out of the league. But still, he’s the success story.
Chicago Bears: Eddie Jackson, S
4.112, 2017
The Bears released Eddie Jackson this offseason, but he played seven years and 100 games in Chicago, starting all 100 games he played. He was an All-Pro in 2018, a Pro Bowler in 2018 and 2019. He snagged 15 interceptions as a Bear, including 10 in his first three seasons.
Honorable mention: Charles Leno Jr. (R7, 2014)
Cincinnati Bengals: C.J. Uzomah, TE
5.157, 2015
Like the Panthers above, the Bengals have had a pretty miserable Day 3 history lately. C.J. Uzomah scored 13 touchdowns in seven seasons as a Bengal, largely as a backup. He got his shot as the nominal starter in 2021, when he set career highs with 493 yards and 5 touchdowns and parlayed that into a Jets contract.
Cleveland Browns: Joe Schobert, LB
4.99, 2016
Joe Schobert had a fine tenure as a Brown. After mostly being a backup as a rookie, he started 45 of a possible 48 games in 2017-2019, including a Pro Bowl berth in 2017. He’s bounced around since then, but it was a fine tenure for a fourth-rounder.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott, QB
4.135, 2016
Only three active quarterbacks drafted on Day 3 have topped 1,000 career fantasy points: Kirk Cousins (drafted 2012), Dak Prescott (2016) and Tyrod Taylor (2011). Prescott was supposed to be a project to work behind Tony Romo when he was drafted, but instead he played all 16 games as a rookie, and has played at least 16 games in six of his eight seasons, including leading the league in touchdown passes last year, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2016, finishing as the MVP runner-up in 2023 and making a total of three Pro Bowls. Hard to argue against this selection.
Honorable mention: DaRon Bland (R5, 2022)
Denver Broncos: Matt Paradis, C
6.207, 2014
The Broncos haven’t hit a lot of home runs on Day 3 recently, but Matt Paradis started 57 of 64 games in his four years as a Bronco after spending his rookie year on the practice squad, and if you can get a four-year starter at center in the sixth round, you take that to the bank.
Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
4.112, 2021
Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the top receiver in the league, and it’s easy to forget now, but it didn’t look like that at first. He didn’t have a lot of buzz as a rookie, and then went into Week 13 of his rookie year averaging 3.5 receptions and 32 yards per game with no scores. And then takeoff — St. Brown had at least 10 targets in each of the last six games, and that carried over into 2022 and 2023. Absolute home run.
Honorable mention: Quadre Diggs (R6, 2015)
Green Bay Packers: Corey Linsley, C
5.161, 2014
Corey Linsley was a stalwart along the Packers’ line for years, then took his game to another level in 2020, the runaway No. 1 center in PFF grading (89.9, second was 80.3) and making a first-team All Pro. He parlayed that into a deal with the Chargers, and after a good 2021, he started to decline, and now injuries might force him from the game. Still, that’s a great career in the fifth.
Honorable mention: Aaron Jones (R5, 2017)
Houston Texans: D.J. Reader, DT
5.166, 2016
D.J. Reader is now eight years into a career as consistently a very solid second-tier defensive tackle. He’s never been a star, but he’s also never been a bum, and now he’s joining a Super Bowl contender in Detroit. Solid, unspectacular, no complaints
Indianapolis Colts: Zaire Franklin, LB
7.235, 2018
Zaire Franklin played all 48 games in his first three seasons in Indianapolis, but with only four starts in that time. He took over as the starter midway through 2021 and started every game the last two years, so things have improved. Grover Stewart was the only other real candidate here, but Stewart was a fourth-rounder, while Franklin was a seventh, and the end-of-draft status for Franklin makes him the pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Telvin Smith, LB
5.144, 2014
Telvin Smith’s career only lasted five years, but that included a second-team All Pro and a Pro Bowl nod in 2017, with 9 total interceptions and 3 interceptions.
Honorable mention: Gardner Minshew (R6, 2019)
Kansas City Chiefs: Tyreek Hill, WR
5.165, 2016
Unlike some of the teams here, the Chiefs have a wealth of great Day 3 picks in the last decade. But even with that, Tyreek Hill is the clear choice here. He’s made the Pro Bowl in all eight of his NFL seasons, made five first-team All-Pros, has topped 1,700 yards each of the last two years. You get that with a top-five draft pick, you’re over the moon. In the fifth round? That’s wild.
Honorable mention: Isiah Pacheco (R7, 2022), L’Jarius Sneed (R4, 2020)
Las Vegas Raiders: Maxx Crosby, EDGE
4.106, 2019
True difference-makers at defense generally don’t fall in the draft. Maxx Crosby is a big-time exception to that rule. He finished second in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2019, then became one of the game’s best defenders in 2021 and beyond, with three Pro Bowls and two second-team All Pros.
Los Angeles Chargers: Desmond King, S
5.151, 2017
Desmond King’s tenure as a star was very short-lived. He was excellent as a rookie in 2017, then even better in 2018, making the first-team All-Pro as a D-back and second-team as a punt returner. Things went south from there and he’s been on three other teams (including the Texans twice) since, but for a little bit, he was a huge success in the fifth.
Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua, WR
5.177, 2023
Maybe the easiest call of this whole exercise. Puka Nacua was barely a blip on the radar a year ago, and all he did was set the rookie reception and yardage record, and then set the rookie yardage record for a playoff game as well. All right then.
Miami Dolphins: Jay Ajayi, RB
5.149, 2015
Jay Ajayi’s 2016 was a home run, with 1,423 scrimmage yards, 8 touchdowns and a Pro Bowl nod. He didn’t even finish the next year in Miami and his career was over by 2019, but if you can get 1,400 yards out of a fifth-round running back, you don’t complain.
Minnesota Vikings: Stefon Diggs, WR
5.146, 2015
Stefon Diggs and Jay Ajayi were three picks apart in 2015 (Brett Hundley and Davis Tull, in between them, were less remarkable). Diggs was better as a Bill (5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns in 4 years) than as a Vikings (4,623 and 30 in five), but his Minnesota tenure was nothing to sneeze at, and of course the trade that sent him to the Bills netted the Vikings the pick that turned into Justin Jefferson. Hard to complain about a single part of that.
New England Patriots: Shaq Mason, G
4.131, 2015
Shaq Mason was a starter out of the gate in New England, and he’s still a full-time starter now, heading into his age-31 season in Houston. He was the top-graded guard in 2018 and had a top-15 grade every year 2016 to 2021.
Honorable mention: James White (R4, 2014)
New Orleans Saints: David Onyemata, DT
4.120, 2016
David Onyemata was mostly a backup for his first three seasons, but he became the starter in2 019 and started every game he appeared in (58 of a possible 66) the next for years before leaving for Atlanta last offseason. Not a star, but a success in the fourth round.
New York Giants: Darius Slayton, WR
5.171, 2019
The Giants have been looking for an upgrade to Darius Slayton basically since he arrived, but they’ve never managed to, and along the way, Slayton has topped 700 yards in four of his five seasons. That’s never gone over 800, but still, he’s a guy who was never supposed to have a big gig there and was never supposed to keep it, but he’s still chugging along.
New York Jets: Folorunso Fatukasi, DT
6.180, 2018
The Jets are another team that has kind of bombed Day 3 in recent history. Folorunso Fatukasi took a while to get going in the NFL, with no starts in his first two seasons and only becoming a full-time starter in his fourth (and last) season with the Jets. But he’s remained a starter in the last two years in Jacksonville. That’s worth something.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Mailata, T
7.233, 2018
We hear about the International Player Pathway Program a few times every year, but Jordan Mailata is the headliner for the program, which has been going since 2016. He’s been a full-time starter for the Eagles almost throughout his NFL tenure after entering the league from Australia’s National Rugby League. He’s a seventh-rounder who became prominent enough to appear on The Masked Singer. Even that is notable enough for entry here.
Honorable mention: Halapoilivaati Vaitai (R5, 2016)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Martavis Bryant, WR
4.118, 2014
Martavis Bryant’s career kind of fell apart for off-field issues (though, despite not playing in the NFL since 2018, he is currently on the Cowboys’ roster), but he started out really well, with 1,314 yards and 14 touchdowns in his first two seasons (2014-2015) as a 23-/24-year-old. After missing 2016 to a suspension, his numbers full off, but his explosive debut really helped the Steelers plant their flag as the Receiver Finders.
San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy, QB
7.262, 2022
Along with Puka Nacua, this was the easiest call of the piece. Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant. Those aren’t expected to do much of anything in the NFL. Instead, he took over as the surprise starter in 2022 and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league since. Sure, having an elite group of weapons and the offensive mind of Kyle Shanahan calling the shots helps, but not every Mr. Irrelevant could do what Brock Purdy has done.
Honorable mention: Trent Brown (R7, 2015), George Kittle (R5, 2017)
Seattle Seahawks: Riq Woolen, CB
5.153, 2022
Riq Woolen slipped a bit in his second year in 2023, but the fact that he had something to slip from is notable. He finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting and made the Pro Bowl in 2022, leading the league with 6 interceptions. You get that in the fifth round, you don’t question a slightly disappointing second season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Gay, K
5.145, 2019
Matt Gay only spent one year in Tampa before bouncing to the Rams and, now, the Colts, and the Pro Bowl he made in 2021 was not as a Buccaneer, but he’s been a solid kicker for his career, and the Buccaneers’ other Day 3 picks in that time have … been bad. That’s about all you can say.
Tennessee Titans: DaQuan Jones, DT
4.112, 2014
DaQuan Jones certainly wasn’t a star right away, but after light playing time as a rookie, he was six-year starter in Tennessee and has been a starter overall for nine straight seasons, putting up his career-best PFF grade just last year.
Washington Commanders: Jamison Crowder, WR
4.105, 2015
Jamison Crowder’s best year came in either in his second season, 2016, when he put up career-highs in yards (847) and touchdowns (7), or in his fifth, 2019, when he came up just short in yards (833) and touchdowns (6) but had career-bests in targets (122) and receptions (78). The latter came after he had joined the Jets, so the Commanders probably prefer 2016. These days, Crowder’s a journeyman (though back with the Commanders), but he’s a fourth-rounder entering his 10th season who might get to 5,000 career yards and/or 30 career touchdowns this year, and that’s no slouch.
Honorable mention: Sam Howell (R5, 2022)
