Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- In terms of a defense’s impact on pace, at 27.60 seconds per play, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) right now.
- The projections expect Kenneth Walker to total 13.5 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- With an impressive total of 75.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (95th percentile), Kenneth Walker places among the leading RBs in football this year.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Seahawks, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to run on 37.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects Kenneth Walker to be a less important option in his team’s run game in this week’s contest (57.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (71.1% in games he has played).
- When talking about run-blocking (and the influence it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Seattle Seahawks grades out as the 4th-worst in the league last year.
- Opposing teams have run for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 96.0 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
