Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-115) after it opened @ 86.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 24.1 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has garnered 85.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Derrick Henry has picked up 106.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (100th percentile).

Cons

The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 93 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards