Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-113).
Pros
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to run on 44.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 131.5 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
- The leading projections forecast Dameon Pierce to notch 14.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Cons
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- The projections expect Dameon Pierce to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game in this contest (48.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.2% in games he has played).
- The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
- Dameon Pierce’s 47.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season signifies a material drop-off in his rushing proficiency over last season’s 71.0 rate.
- Dameon Pierce’s running efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating just 3.02 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
