NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Van JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Vikings
Right now, Van Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-125) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 131.2 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
- The 7th-most plays in football have been run by the Falcons this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- While Van Jefferson has been responsible for 8.2% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta’s pass game in this week’s game at 15.5%.
- This year, the shaky Vikings defense has allowed a monstrous 176.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-worst in football.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Falcons being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- After totaling 63.0 air yards per game last season, Van Jefferson has significantly declined this season, now pacing 50.0 per game.
- Van Jefferson has posted significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).
- Van Jefferson rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, completing just 52.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 20th percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
