Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Van Jefferson from EV Insight

Van JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Van Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-125) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 131.2 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The 7th-most plays in football have been run by the Falcons this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
While Van Jefferson has been responsible for 8.2% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta’s pass game in this week’s game at 15.5%.
This year, the shaky Vikings defense has allowed a monstrous 176.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-worst in football.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Falcons being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
After totaling 63.0 air yards per game last season, Van Jefferson has significantly declined this season, now pacing 50.0 per game.
Van Jefferson has posted significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).
Van Jefferson rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, completing just 52.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 20th percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards