Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-110) after it opened @ 92.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Tyreek Hill is projected by the projection model to place in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs with 12.4 targets.
Tyreek Hill has been in the 99th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a superb 80.5 figure this year.
Tyreek Hill’s 118.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a noteable improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 92.0 figure.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Tyreek Hill has notched far fewer air yards this year (124.0 per game) than he did last year (131.0 per game).
The Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.4%) to wide receivers this year (59.4%).
This year, the stout Chiefs defense has allowed the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a puny 7.3 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
121
Receiving Yards