Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

A passing game script is suggested by the Vikings being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
Our trusted projections expect T.J. Hockenson to accrue 9.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

T.J. Hockenson’s ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, notching just 3.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 figure last year.
The Falcons pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 6.68 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta’s safety corps has been great this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards