Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-130) after it opened @ 20.5 (-120).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Seahawks, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- In terms of a defense’s impact on pace, at 27.60 seconds per play, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) right now.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- Noah Fant is positioned as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging a terrific 33.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- After totaling 25.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Fant has regressed heavily this season, now boasting 18.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Noah Fant has been utilized much less in his team’s air attack.
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 35.0) versus tight ends this year.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 5.25 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
