Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-130) after it opened @ 20.5 (-120).

Pros

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Seahawks, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
In terms of a defense’s impact on pace, at 27.60 seconds per play, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) right now.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Noah Fant is positioned as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging a terrific 33.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Cons

After totaling 25.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Fant has regressed heavily this season, now boasting 18.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Noah Fant has been utilized much less in his team’s air attack.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 35.0) versus tight ends this year.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 5.25 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards