Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup QB Sam Ehlinger in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Michael Pittman has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Michael Pittman has notched quite a few less air yards this season (65.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.6%) vs. WRs this year (62.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards