Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected by the projection model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
With a high 97.3% Route Participation Rate (98th percentile) this year, Keenan Allen ranks as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
The projections expect Keenan Allen to earn 10.2 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Keenan Allen has totaled significantly more air yards this year (101.0 per game) than he did last year (89.0 per game).
Keenan Allen has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week’s game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
The Jets defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 104.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards