NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Panthers vs. Colts
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 133.0 total plays called: the most out of all the games this week.
- The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 63.4 plays per game.
- Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has conceded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (56.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Hayden Hurst has been incorporated much less in his offense’s air attack.
- The Carolina O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- Hayden Hurst’s 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a remarkable regression in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 33.0 figure.
- Hayden Hurst’s 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a significant decrease in his receiving skills over last season’s 79.1% figure.
- Hayden Hurst’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, accumulating just 5.08 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.60 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards
18
Receiving Yards
