Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 133.0 total plays called: the most out of all the games this week.
The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 63.4 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has conceded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (56.0) vs. TEs this year.

Cons

With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Hayden Hurst has been incorporated much less in his offense’s air attack.
The Carolina O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Hayden Hurst’s 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a remarkable regression in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 33.0 figure.
Hayden Hurst’s 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a significant decrease in his receiving skills over last season’s 79.1% figure.
Hayden Hurst’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, accumulating just 5.08 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.60 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards