NFL

Bets

November 4, 2023

Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Gerald EverettReceiving Yards

Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected by the projection model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
In this week’s contest, Gerald Everett is anticipated by the model to finish in the 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.2 targets.
Gerald Everett’s possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 69.2% to 82.7%.
The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.21 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week’s game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
After totaling 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has undergone a big decline this year, currently boasting 16.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards