NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Chargers
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected by the projection model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
- In this week’s contest, Gerald Everett is anticipated by the model to finish in the 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.2 targets.
- Gerald Everett’s possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 69.2% to 82.7%.
- The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.21 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week’s game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
- After totaling 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has undergone a big decline this year, currently boasting 16.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
