Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Demario Douglas from EV Insight

Demario DouglasReceiving Yards

Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-127) after it opened @ 41.5 (-119).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Demario Douglas to total 6.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
While Demario Douglas has been responsible for 12.0% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New England’s offense in this week’s game at 20.2%.
This year, the shaky Commanders defense has allowed a monstrous 203.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the worst in football.

Cons

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas rates among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league in picking up extra yardage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards