NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Demario DouglasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Commanders
Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-127) after it opened @ 41.5 (-119).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- The predictive model expects Demario Douglas to total 6.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
- While Demario Douglas has been responsible for 12.0% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New England’s offense in this week’s game at 20.2%.
- This year, the shaky Commanders defense has allowed a monstrous 203.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the worst in football.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The Patriots O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas rates among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league in picking up extra yardage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
