Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-114/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 273.5 (-115) after it opened @ 281.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for substantially more yards per game (334.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
278
Passing Yards