Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.1 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The model projects Patrick Mahomes to throw 42.5 passes this week, on average: the most among all QBs.
- This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a staggering 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-highest rate in the league.
Cons
- Patrick Mahomes’s 285.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season indicates a noteable regression in his throwing ability over last season’s 325.0 rate.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target this season reflects a significant decline in his passing efficiency over last season’s 8.5% mark.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Miami’s unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
334
Passing Yards