Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 284.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.1 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The model projects Patrick Mahomes to throw 42.5 passes this week, on average: the most among all QBs.
- This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a staggering 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-highest rate in the league.
Cons
- Patrick Mahomes’s 285.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season indicates a noteable regression in his throwing ability over last season’s 325.0 rate.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target this season reflects a significant decline in his passing efficiency over last season’s 8.5% mark.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Miami’s unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
334
Passing Yards
334
Passing Yards
