Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Browns vs. Cardinals
Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-115) after it opened @ 206.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 66.1 plays per game.
- The Browns O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- This year, the poor Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a colossal 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in football.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.32 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Arizona’s collection of CBs has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Browns, who are heavily favored by 13.5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- The projections expect Deshaun Watson to throw 28.8 passes in this contest, on average: the fewest out of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
197
Passing Yards
197
Passing Yards
