Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Deshaun Watson from EV Insight

Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards

Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-115) after it opened @ 206.5 (-115).

Pros

The Browns have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 66.1 plays per game.
The Browns O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
This year, the poor Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a colossal 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in football.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.32 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Arizona’s collection of CBs has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

Cons

This game’s spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Browns, who are heavily favored by 13.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The projections expect Deshaun Watson to throw 28.8 passes in this contest, on average: the fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
197
Passing Yards