NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Week 8 featured a lot of fun and explosive offensive performances. Week 9 was extremely underwhelming in comparison.
Just nine teams were able to score 27 points in the week. Only one quarterback (Geno Smith) was able to throw more than 300 yards. Despite the underwhelming offensive production, some standout fantasy performances can have an impact going forward.
You’ll find Week 9’s risers and fallers below.
Riser
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
There has been a significant shift in Justin Herbert’s passing volume over the last five games, which has allowed him to put up some strong performances in both real life and fantasy.
Over the first three weeks, Herbert attempted 21.3 passing attempts per game and failed to hit 150 passing yards in any single game. He averaged just 10.1 fantasy points per game during that stretch thanks to four passing touchdowns.
In the last five weeks, the Chargers have seen their passing volume increase to 31.8 attempts per game. The increased volume has seen Herbert jump to 17.3 fantasy points per game.
Herbert has been able to remain efficient as a passer with the increased volume. The Chargers have a slew of great fantasy matchups for quarterbacks on the horizon, making Herbert extremely relevant in fantasy.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott was a healthy scratch due to missing team meetings in Week 9, which gave Rico Dowdle control of the backfield. He responded with his best performance of the season, carrying the ball 12 times for 75 yards and catching five of six targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.
Dowdle’s role has been inconsistent this season with Elliott healthy, but he showed that he can handle rushing volume several times this season.
There is a chance that Elliott has fallen out of favor in Dallas since his production (3.1 yards per carry) hasn’t been good enough to forgive any off-the-field issues. Dowdle should continue to get an opportunity to be the lead back in Dallas for the foreseeable future.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton was a popular late-round fantasy pick during the offseason. He was coming off a strong season (59 receptions for 772 yards and 10 touchdowns) in 2023 and was the unquestioned WR1 in a weak passing attack. There were a lot of questions regarding the offense with Bo Nix under center, but Sutton has shown that he can produce touchdowns regardless of the quarterback.
Through Denver’s first seven games, it looked like the skeptics were correct. Sutton had just 21 receptions on 47 targets for 227 yards and two touchdowns. The veteran receiver didn’t even receive a target in Week 7.
However, the situation flipped starting in Week 8.
Over the last two weeks, Sutton has 15 receptions (on 21 targets) for 222 yards. He hasn’t found his way into the end zone, but it hasn’t mattered due to his ridiculous efficiency and Nix’s improvements under center.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
This season, the Colts passing weapons as a whole have performed better without Anthony Richardson under center. The transition from Richardson to Joe Flacco should impact Josh Downs very positively. Since returning from his preseason high-ankle sprain, Downs has established himself as the top target in the Colts offense.
FTN’s Splits tool shows just how impactful Flacco being under center is for Josh Downs’ production this season.
Downs has been far more productive with Flacco under center than Richardson this season. Not only does Downs benefit from higher quality throws, but he also gets peppered with targets in the short-to-intermediate areas with Flacco whereas Richardson scrambles or takes deep shots.
Expect Downs to see an uptick in targets and production now that Richardson is on the bench. While there is a chance that Richardson can return this year (and negatively impact Downs’ ability to produce), he’s a weekly WR3/FLEX option that can easily touch WR2 numbers in negative game scripts.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants
Tight end has been rough in fantasy this season, so knowing the deep targets who are starting to improve is important. Theo Johnson is an interesting player who is seeing his role in the passing attack increase.
Over the last two weeks, Johnson has been targeted 10 times. He’s caught six of those targets for 86 yards and his first career touchdown. His snap share has stayed above 85% over the last three weeks as well. Johnson’s six targets in Week 9 were second on the team behind only Malik Nabers
Johnson is far from reliable in fantasy despite the recent production. He has as many zero-target games this season (2) as he does games with five or more targets.
But with bye weeks ramping back up next week, Johnson is an intriguing name who is seeing a role increase in the passing attack. At worst, Johnson has the size to score touchdowns in the red zone for a Giants offense looking for a complement to Nabers.
Fallers
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The return of Travis Etienne Jr. led to a reduced role for Tank Bigsby against the Eagles.
Bigsby ultimately handled more snaps (28 to 17), but most of that production came in the second half. During that time, Bigsby split time with D’Ernest Johnson (13 snaps). The second-year running back finished the game with just eight carries for 22 yards.
Etienne (three carries for 24 yards) will continue to be a thorn in Bigsby’s side when active. You can’t drop Bigsby given what we have seen him produce this season, but he can’t be trusted in starting lineups as long as Jacksonville can split snaps between him, Etienne and Johnson.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
De'Von Achane has seemingly taken over the Dolphins backfield.
Over the last three weeks, Achane has handled 37 carries for 237 yards and a touchdown. He’s also caught 16 of 19 targets for 116 yards and two touchdowns.
On the surface, Raheem Mostert has held on to a consistent role in the backfield as well, handling 30 carries for 125 yards and two touchdowns. However, he was on the field for just 14 snaps in Week 9 against Buffalo. By comparison, Achane was on the field for 42.
Mostert is more of a bench stash than an outright drop given his upside and Achane’s injury history. He just can’t be trusted as a weekly FLEX play while his snap share is so unreliable.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave suffered a brutal concussion just eight snaps into the game that required him to be backboarded off the field and sent to the hospital for evaluation. By all accounts, Olave is fine and will likely play again this season, but he has suffered a concerning amount of concussions in his career.
This was Olave’s second concussion over the last three weeks and the fifth concussion of his career. As we’ve seen with Tua Tagovailoa (and many others), having a concussion increases your ability to suffer another one with a quick turnaround.
Olave’s production has struggled this year due to injuries and uncertainty at quarterback. This concussion could cost him more than just a game, which dampens any enthusiasm for Derek Carr’s return to the field.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
The Keenan Allen experience has been underwhelming for Chicago. Injury issues, a poor offensive line and underwhelming play calling have limited Allen to just 32 targets, 17 receptions, 161 yards and two touchdowns on the season.
Allen has been seeing consistent targets over the last three weeks (22) but has generated just 11 receptions, 116 yards and two touchdowns. Allen is seeing a lot of quick underneath targets, but the big plays downfield are going to DJ Moore and Rome Odunze
It would make sense for Chicago to increasingly funnel targets to Moore and Odunze as the season goes on since they are under contract beyond this season. That would relegate Allen to short aDot, chain-moving targets. There’s also a chance Caleb Williams could miss time after suffering an injury at the end of the loss to the Cardinals.
Fantasy managers hoping to PPR-scam their way into production with Allen in Chicago’s offense need to start looking elsewhere.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Isaiah Likely has provided some great fantasy weeks this season, but his playing time took a significant hit in Week 9. Likely played just 17 of 57 snaps and ran just seven routes against the Broncos. Likely was well behind Mark Andrews (28 snaps) and Charlie Kolar (22 snaps) in the pecking order.
Part of this can be explained by the blowout victory for Baltimore, but the team also utilized three-receiver sets more. That should be the expectation going forward now that the team has traded for Diontae Johnson Likely was getting a lot of slot work in three-receiver sets to start the season but won’t run routes over Johnson, Zay Flowers or Rashod Bateman going forward.
Andrews’ resurgence in recent weeks combined with a significant wide receiver upgrade makes it impossible to trust Likely in fantasy as long as Andrews is healthy.
