Pros
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- The model projects Raheem Mostert to accrue 15.0 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Raheem Mostert has earned 54.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- Raheem Mostert’s 70.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his running ability over last year’s 54.0 mark.
Cons
- The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.3% run rate.
- At the present time, the 9th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
- This year, the deficient New England Patriots run defense has given up a whopping 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s ground game: the 26th-biggest rate in football.
- The New England Patriots safeties rank as the best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards