College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-108/-121).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-121) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- The model projects Raheem Mostert to accrue 15.0 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Raheem Mostert has earned 54.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- Raheem Mostert’s 70.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his running ability over last year’s 54.0 mark.
Cons
- The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.3% run rate.
- At the present time, the 9th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
- This year, the deficient New England Patriots run defense has given up a whopping 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s ground game: the 26th-biggest rate in football.
- The New England Patriots safeties rank as the best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
