NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-143) after it opened @ 59.5 (-136).
Pros
- The Colts have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL (42.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Colts.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.2 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a staggering 61.7 per game on average).
- In this week’s contest, Jonathan Taylor is expected by the projections to slot into the 85th percentile among RBs with 14.8 rush attempts.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Jonathan Taylor’s 3.5 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a remarkable regression in his running talent over last season’s 4.5 rate.
- Opposing teams have run for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 96.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, New Orleans’s unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
