Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-110).

Pros

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the predictive model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
In this contest, Alvin Kamara is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.5 carries.
Alvin Kamara has earned 64.9% of his offense’s run game usage this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
With a remarkable total of 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (88th percentile), Alvin Kamara rates among the best pure runners in the NFL this year.

Cons

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.0% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
With a lousy tally of 2.23 yards after contact (14th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL.
When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Indianapolis’s group of DEs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards