Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-120/-109).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-109) after it opened @ 90.5 (-114).
Pros
- At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Dolphins.
- In this game, Tyreek Hill is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.5 targets.
- Tyreek Hill’s 81.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 99th percentile for wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill’s 119.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a material gain in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 92.0 mark.
- Tyreek Hill’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 70.8% to 73.9%.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- At the present time, the 9th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- After averaging 131.0 air yards per game last year, Tyreek Hill has been a disappointment this year, now sitting at 122.0 per game.
- This year, the fierce New England Patriots defense has allowed a feeble 140.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 9th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
110
Receiving Yards
110
Receiving Yards
